QB2 Streamers: Week 6
Lucky Week 6 has arrived! All across fantasy leagues everywhere, the teams with Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees are struggling to field a starting lineup. Matt Stafford won’t be throwing any touchdowns to Kenny Golladay or Golden Tate this weekend. No sir. While only the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints have byes this week, it’s a booming impact when two fantasy-relevant offenses are on the bench.
If this article has the same success rate as last weekend, I’ll be writing it on the back of napkins in the local Arby’s in the future. Needless to say, fantasy football doesn’t always return the results we desire or expect. The Any Given Sunday mantra applies not just to the product on the field, but the games that accompany that product.
So, for transparency sake, last week’s results, my “Fishing Upstream” recommendations were Josh Rosen (10.50 fantasy points, QB28) and Derek Carr (14.22 fantasy points, QB23), and my “Fishing Downstream” recommendation was Deshaun Watson (22.00 fantasy points, QB10).
In the case of streaming quarterbacks, and for the sake of this article, my focus is highlighting signal-callers to stream in the second quarterback slot in your 2QB or Superflex leagues (in the event you went with a Studs & Streaming approach to the position in drafts this offseason). I will also highlight one quarterback you would normally start in your QB1 slot to potentially reconsider due to a bad matchup.
FISHING UPSTREAM: TWO QB2S TO STREAM IN WEEK 6
Eli Manning vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Last Sunday against the Carolina Panthers, Eli Manning felt the seat warming underneath him. A quarterback controversy is imminent, just not how Giants fans envisioned back in March. The Giants not only completed a 50+ yard touchdown pass, but it involved their first round draft pick on the receiving end of a pass from the team’s best receiver. I guess passing up a quarterback has it’s advantages at times, even if it doesn’t result in wins.
Wins aren’t something that come easily for Manning when facing Philadelphia. Manning is 10-18 in his career against the defending Super Bowl champs. Stats, on the other hand, come in droves when Eli plays the Eagles.
Over Manning’s last seven games against the Eagles, he is averaging 333 passing yards and just over two touchdowns per game.
Of those seven games, only one was decided by more than one possession. This season, when the Giants are in neutral game scripts, they are throwing the ball frequently, as illustrated in this chart from TJ Hernandez:
Passing rates in neutral game script (score within a TD) and in the red zone pic.twitter.com/EuLj8q0qZk
— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) October 9, 2018
With Manning likely to drop back numerous times, he might do it in a way that has hurt this Philadelphia defense in 2018. The Eagles have been getting killed by play action passing. Last week, 32% of Manning’s dropbacks involved play-action passes.
C.J. Beathard vs. Green Bay Packers
Making his second appearance here, Beathard has turned in two straight serviceable fantasy performances since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo. Actually, scratch that. Beathard has been downright amazing. Picking up where Ryan Fitzpatrick left off, Beathard is doing everything he can to make 2018 the year of the streaming quarterback. He has thrown for 647 yards and four touchdowns in two starts. He’s even rushed for a touchdown.
Beathard is going up against a Packers defense that has impressive numbers against opposing quarterbacks, but due largely to lack of volume. Teams have only thrown 162 times against the Packers, seventh-fewest in the league. Game script has a bit to do with that. Last week Matt Stafford threw just 11 second-half passes. Josh Allen had only one completion of more than 17 yards against the Packers and was sacked seven times. Alex Smith needed only 20 passing attempts in his 14-point victory over the Packers.
With Matt Breida’s availability looking bleak, Beathard must rely on Alfred Morris and his other pass catchers. Fortunately, that might not be the drop off one would assume. Morris had five targets last week, catching three, and altogether, Beathard targeted 11 different receivers and 10 of them caught at least one pass.
FISHING DOWNSTREAM: ONE QB1 TO AVOID IN WEEK 6
Patrick Mahomes VS. New England Patriots
Bill Belichick at home vs. a rookie quarterback? Give me the hoodie every time. Sure, Mahomes isn’t really a rookie (Philadelphia 76ers point guard Ben Simmons begs to differ). This is just Mahomes’ seventh NFL start. Eventually, he has to come back down to Earth, right?
Bad news for Patrick Mahomes as he makes his 7th career start Sunday against the Patriots: The last 10 QBs with 10-or-fewer career starts prior to starting against the Patriots went 0-10 with 9 TD and 11 INT.
— Dan Hellie (@DanHellie) October 10, 2018
Another factor is Belichick and the Patriots are coming off extended rest, having played at home last Thursday. If there’s ever a week to envision a severe regression for Mahomes, it’s this one. The Chiefs are coming off a convincing victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars and aiming to put the entire NFL on blast if they can go into Foxboro and steal a win. The Patriots defense has steadily improved though this season and is looking for a signature home win. Call it a hunch, but I think the Patriots scalp Mahomes and the Chiefs.