Quarterback Consistency Scores through Week 12

Quarterback Consistency Scores through Week 12

Editor’s Note:  This guest post was written by Phillip Caldwell. For more information about his consistency scores and the math behind them, refer to his first article on the subject from after Week 5, and for more fantasy nuggets like this, follow him on Twitter @DumpsterDiveFF.


Quarterback Consistency

As the fantasy playoffs approach, you likely have your quarterback situation locked in. But there have been some recent shifts in the signal-caller landscape, which could affect plenty of two-quarterback leagues. We’ll take a look at the four new faces under center and what we can reasonably expect, but first, here are my updated quarterback consistency scores through Week 12.

Fantasy Consistency Scores – QBs

qb consistency scores through week 12 2018

(Editor’s Note: Only the six most recent games are shown. For game-by-game data from Weeks 1 through 6, see previous installments of Phillip’s consistency scores.)

Fantasy Consistency Scores – Defenses vs. QBs

defense vs qb consistency through week 12 2018

(Editor’s Note: Only the six most recent games are shown. For game-by-game data from Weeks 1 through 6, see previous installments of Phillip’s consistency scores.)

A Fresh Horse for Washington

I included Colt McCoy this week even though I like to typically wait for three weeks. But with the playoffs starting for many leagues, we don’t have the luxury of time. Considering McCoy only has a game and a half under his belt this season, his 4.72 consistency score is actually more inspiring than it typically would be. Looking ahead, the Washington Football Club has a pretty neutral schedule against the Eagles (14th), Giants (13th), Jaguars (16th), and Titans (12th). With no negative matchups and then a top-12 matchup for the fantasy finale, there is reason for hope if you need to plug in McCoy.

A Tale of Two Starters

Lamar Jackson is another tricky case. If I consider his weekly fantasy output across the whole season, Jackson doesn’t make it into the top-32. He has only averaged nine snaps per game. Although, if we look only at Jackson’s production after Baltimore’s bye week (when he stepped into the starting role), his consistency score jumps up to 11.36, which is the fifth-best among all signal-callers. Considering the Ravens’ remaining schedule, there is a real chance Jackson leads many teams to a fantasy title. Atlanta (3rd), Kansas City (9th), and Tampa Bay (2nd) are all top-12 matchups before Jackson (or Joe Flacco) slams up against the Los Angeles Chargers (26th) in fantasy’s championship weekend.

Can’t Change an Offense’s Stripes

With Andy Dalton injured, Jeff Driskel gets the nod to start for the floundering Bengals. There isn’t much to take from his 36 career snaps, and Cincinnati’s offense hasn’t done much to instill confidence, especially without A.J. Green in the mix. Furthermore, Driskel runs into a pair of bottom-10 matchups against the Broncos and Chargers right off the bat, so I have little confidence he can jump-start the Cincy offense. The back-half of his final four weeks are more forgiving, with Oakland (1st) and Cleveland (17th) to finish out the fantasy season. But I don’t think you can get past the first round or two of playoffs if you’re depending on Driskel.

Managing the Running Game

Blake Bortles has finally been benched, and whether you agree or disagree with Jacksonville’s decision, Cody Kessler is now slated to finish the season for the Jaguars. Considering their unsettled depth chart at wide receiver and their run-heavy approach, Kessler shouldn’t be anything other than a glorified game manager for the next five weeks. For fantasy purposes, Kessler showed some promise his rookie year with Cleveland, but let’s not get too hopeful by extrapolating that performance. If you can get through Week 13 versus Indianapolis (29th), Kessler gets a top-12 matchup against Tennessee (12th) before an ugly pair of semifinal and championship opponents in Washington (19th) and Miami (30th). Unless you’re in a point-per-handoff league, try to pivot away from Kessler if at all possible.

Greg Smith

Greg Smith is an engineer, co-founder of TwoQBs.com, and enthusiast for the strategy and design of variance-based games.  When he started playing fantasy football in 2001, his home league's small number of teams necessitated starting two quarterbacks.  That necessity has since grown into obsession, making Greg one of the preeminent champions of 2QB and Superflex formats.

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