Quarterback Consistency Scores through Week 8
Editor’s Note: This guest post was written by Phillip Caldwell. For more information about his consistency scores and the math behind them, refer to his first article on the subject from after Week 5, and for more Fantasy Nuggets like this, follow him on Twitter @DumpsterDiveFF.
It is here, that dreaded week in fantasy football when six teams are on bye. That leaves only 26 viable fantasy quarterbacks for our 2QB and Superflex leagues! Having so little to work with, you might not find much wiggle room as a fantasy GM. But if you have an embarrassment of riches, you might be able to buy a shiny new running back or receiver by sending your third-string signal-caller to a needy rival. Let’s take a look at my consistency scores through Week 8.
Fantasy Consistency Scores – QBs
Fantasy Consistency Scores – Defenses vs. QBs
Consistent Lack of Volume
The player who made the biggest move up the rankings after notching his third game of 20-plus fantasy points is Russell Wilson. He jumped from 16th to 10th. But of all the signal-callers in the top-10, Wilson has the best shot at falling back out. He ranks 26th in pass attempts and has only posted more than 20 attempts in one game this season. If Wilson was still rushing, I would feel more comfortable with him for the rest of the season. But through eight games, Wilson hasn’t even been able to accumulate 100 total yards on the ground. His best day rushing was Week 4 against the anemic Cardinals, for 21 yards. With matchups against both Los Angeles teams, followed by Green Bay, Wilson doesn’t get a top-10 defensive matchup for quarterbacks until Carolina in Week 12.
Brees Through Peaks and Valleys
The flip side of that coin is Drew Brees falling from the 11 spot all the way down to 19 after a measly 6.8-point outing in Week 8. That’s the second game this season Brees has posted under 10 fantasy points. With a dynamic pair of running backs and a defense that seems to be taking shape, we could see Brees’ ceiling lowering if he doesn’t have to carry his team. But with a potential shootout looming against the Rams, and then positive matchups with Cincinnati (8th) in Week 10 and Atlanta (5th) in Week 12 sandwiching a middle-of-the-pack Philadelphia defense (15th), Brees has plenty of opportunity to bounce back.
Do Not Swim with the Dolphins
Brock Osweiler? Ryan Tannehill? I don’t care who the Miami quarterback is, I don’t want him on my fantasy team. Their next three matchups are all tough on quarterbacks, with the Jets being the easiest (14th). Green Bay and Indianapolis both fall outside the top-20. Which brings me to my next point…
Recalibrating Matchup Expectations
That’s right, you read that correctly. The Indianapolis defense is a negative matchup for fantasy quarterbacks, with a consistency score of only 5.27 and allowing only 16.6 fantasy points per game to the position. There are a number of defenses that are surprising to see on the bottom-half of the rankings. Along with Indy, Arizona, Green Bay, and Washington all ranking so low goes against intuition. Against the Cardinals in particular, teams don’t need to throw because Arizona’s defense is hemorrhaging fantasy points to running backs. It is time to reconsider how we think of those other defenses, too, as they are much more formidable now than in previous seasons.