Your Road House Guide to Fantasy QB Trade Targets
You 2QBers who have followed my writing since I broke into the fantasy football industry in 2013 know how big of a fan I am of Patrick Swayze and his movies. Especially Road House. Each fantasy season since 2013 I’ve meshed the two worlds together with yearly 2QB trading advice columns based on Patrick Swayze movies. To date I’ve covered Road House, Point Break, and Dirty Dancing.
This year I’m going back to the Road House well and changing things up. With the fantasy football playoffs only a few weeks away and the heart of bye season nearly over I’m going to list a few quarterback trade targets based on Road House characters. My focus is mainly on quarterbacks you want on your team during the fantasy playoffs (Week 14 to Week 16).
Before I get to my QB wish list I’m going to share some fantasy data from the first eight weeks of the season. Below is a breakdown of how many top-12 (QB1) weekly fantasy QB finishes each team has allowed.
Top-12 Fantasy QB Finishes Allowed
As you can see, Cincinnati leads the way with six top-12 fantasy finishes allowed out of eight games. Then there are five teams tied for second with five top-12 finishes allowed (ATL, CLE, DET, NO, SF). All the way at the bottom we have the Broncos and Giants with one top-12 finished allowed apiece, followed by the Vikings and their impressive feat of not allowing a single top-12 finish.
I used top-12 to account for leagues of 12 teams. Below is how many top-24 finishes each defense has allowed and how many finishes outside the top-24 they have given up.
Top-24 Fantasy QB Finishes Allowed
QB25 or Worse Finishes Allowed
Atlanta and Cleveland are the only two teams to have played eight games this year and allowed at least a top-24 finish in each contest. Then we have the Eagles who have four quarterback finishes outside the top-24 (unstartable).
I’ve been tracking QB finishes allowed by defenses and weekly fantasy points scored and finishes by quarterbacks all season long. It’s what I use to base my weekly QB streaming decisions on, as I like to target defenses regularly allowing quarterbacks to finish in the top-12, while avoiding those that don’t.
Below is a color-coded chart based on top-12 finishes allowed that I broke down into Dark Green (five or six top-12 fantasy finishes allowed), Light Green (three or four top-12 finishes allowed), Yellow (two top-12 fantasy finishes allowed), Orange (one top-12 fantasy finish allowed), and Red (zero top-12 fantasy finishes allowed).
Now, fantasy finishes allowed isn’t the only criteria I base my streaming decisions on or use to decide which quarterbacks to acquire via trade. The reason why is because a defense might have started off slow, but then played better against the quarterback position during the course of the season, or vice versa. One such example is the Philadelphia Eagles.
In their first three games this season, the Eagles allowed an average of 227.33 passing yards/game, a 0:3 passing touchdown to interception ratio, and 7.23 fantasy points/game to opposing signal callers. In their last four games, they’ve allowed 238.5 passing yards/game, eight touchdowns to three interceptions, and 17.6 fantasy points/game to QBs. Fantasy football is a weekly game and you need to stay on top of weekly data to decipher useful trends to aid you in the roster decision making process. With that caveat in mind, here are a few Road House quarterback trade targets in 2QB leagues…
Dalton – Tyrod
How convenient I paired up Dalton and Tyrod. They both go by one name and things didn’t start off too hot for them. When Patrick Swayze first shows up to protect the Double Deuce he encounters a myriad of problems and even sees the store belonging to his friend Red Webster get blown up. After a lot of offseason Tyrod hype, he wound up scoring 5.54 fantasy points and finishing as the QB31 in Week 1.
However, both Dalton and Tyrod eventually found their groove. Dalton saved the town, defeating the evil Brad Wesley, and getting the girl in his beloved “Doc”. Tyrod has finished no worse than QB15 in his last seven starts, with four top-12 finishes, and he’s averaged 19.4 fantasy points/game during that span.
During the fantasy playoffs, Tyrod faces the Steelers, Browns, and Dolphins. Those three teams have combined to allow 12 top-12 finishes this season and are allowing an average of 18.1 fantasy points/game to the quarterback position. They have also allowed 10 or more rushing yards in a game nine times season; Tyrod is averaging 40 rushing yards/game.
In addition to a favorable playoff schedule, Tyrod also has two extremely favorable matchups in Week 11 (Bengals) and Week 13 (Raiders). You shouldn’t feel any pain starting Tyrod in the fantasy playoffs because pain don’t hurt.
Elizabeth “Doc” Clay – Drew Brees
Need a roster tune-up? How about bringing in Doctor Brees? The Saints signal caller is averaging 23.1 fantasy point/game this season (third-most), has scored 20+ fantasy points in five-of-7 games, and has five top-12 fantasy QB finishes this season. You might look at Tampa Bay’s three top-12 finishes allowed and wonder why they are a prime matchup for opposing quarterbacks. You have to borrow Doc’s x-ray machine and look under the hood for the answer: the Bucs have been really bad against good quarterbacks, but able to limit bad quarterbacks.
Here’s what the average per game stat line from Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, and Derek Carr against TB looks like:
383.67 yards, 2.3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and 28.2 fantasy points.
And here’s the average stat line of all other QBs (Keenum, DEN QB, Derek Anderson, Kaepernick) versus TB this year:
212.25 yards, 1.25 touchdowns, 1 INT, 12.62 fantasy points.
A look at Brees’ 2016 game logs:
Based on his 2016 production, a 380-yard/2-touchdown game from Brees vs. TB doesn’t seem that outlandish. Getting that type of production twice in the fantasy playoffs? Just what the Doc ordered.
Wade Garrett – Philip Rivers
Wade Garrett is Dalton’s best friend and a straight shooter. When Dalton needed help his only call was to Garrett and the two teamed up to take down Brad Wesley’s crew and clean up The Double Deuce. I don’t know about you, but when I think cowboy/gunslinger in the NFL the one name that immediately comes to mind is Philip Rivers. It might be the bolo tie, but I think Rivers would fit right in the Road House universe.
Just like Dalton needed the assistance of Garrett, Rivers is a great trade target to fix your QB depth chart for the playoffs and even has a fantastic pre-playoffs matchup against Tampa Bay. Looking ahead to Week 14, Rivers starts things off against a Panthers defense that has allowed four top-12 finishes to opposing quarterbacks and is giving up 20.9 (third-most) fantasy points/game to QBs.
Rivers then gets Oakland and Cleveland to finish out the fantasy playoffs. They’ve allowed a combined nine top-12 finishes and are both in the top-eight of fantasy points allowed/game to QBs. If you ride with Rivers during the fantasy playoffs there’s a good chance you won’t have to worry about eating “the big white mint.”
Cody – Brock
If you’ve never seen Road House (why are you reading this article?), Cody is the frontman of the The Double Deuce house band. The character is played by blind Canadian musician Jeff Healey. Yes, you read that right, The Double Deuce had a blind band leader. Why am I comparing him to Brock Osweiler? Because at this point with Osweiler you have to blindly insert him into your starting roster and hope he takes advantage of good-to-great matchups.
In some instances this season Osweiler did put up decent fantasy numbers in good matchups (16.36 fantasy points/QB16 vs. Indianapolis in Week 6), but in other prime matchups not so much (9.14 points/QB26 vs. Detroit in Week 8). The Houston signal caller (if he doesn’t get benched for Tom Savage) gets a playoff schedule that features matchups against Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati, plus a Week 11 matchup against Oakland. Hopefully you’ll have Angel Eyes for Osweiler following Week 16 and not wishing his fantasy line was bigger.
Brad Wesley – Andrew Luck
Every movie needs a villain and in Brad Wesley, Road House may have provided movie goers with one of the most eccentric villains in cinema history. Rather than take a deep dive on Brad Wesley’s greatest hits, including proudly boasting the only reason the town has a JC Penny is because of him, watch the clip below to get an inside look at the type of person Brad Wesley is…
Why the Luck-Brad Wesley comparison? Luck has his fair share of haters and even his own GM feels hamstrung when it comes to roster building because of Luck’s contract. I listed Luck here not as a quarterback to trade for, but rather one to trade away.
Luck’s first two fantasy playoff matchups are against Houston and Minnesota, two of the stingiest defenses in the NFL against the pass (Houston has allowed two top-12 finishes and is giving up 13 fantasy points/game to QBs, while Minnesota has not allowed ant top-12 finishes and is giving up 12.2 points to QBs). Luck does have five top-12 finishes through eight weeks, but those looming matchups against the Texans and Vikings have the potential to make him more of a fantasy playoff villain than hero. You can probably get a haul for him via trade based on production and name brand value. Just hope you don’t trade him and then face him in Week 16 when he plays the Raiders. If that happens, you might want to hide under the Polar Bear that fell on Tinker.
*Stats used in this article courtesy of FantasyData