Scatterbrained: Week 11 Tips & Trends

Scatterbrained: Week 11 Tips & Trends

Scattered Thinking About Week 10

Quality Control & Playoff Planning

Quality Control is a concept applied a variety of ways depending on industry. Most NFL franchises have Quality Control personnel on their staffs. Their role varies slightly from team to team, but in general, the QC person on staff will track team tendencies, study film of upcoming opponents, and handle data analysis. The goal, naturally, is to provide the Head Coach with information they can use to attack the opponent effectively.

In our fantasy world we also act as Quality Control. Here are a few ways we manage the quality of our weekly (and seasonal) output:

  • Churning the back end of the roster to remove unproductive assets
  • Studying upcoming matchups
  • Tracking tendencies (internal and external) that affect roster management
  • Trading players
  • Reconfiguring DFS contest distribution

How can we leverage our version of Quality Control heading into fantasy playoffs? The oldest (and probably most effective) method is to look at Weeks 12-16 to see which offenses project into the best matchups.

I’m doing this very thing with the DAAM tool I’ve built this season. For instance, here are the average DAAM scores for the Quarterback position Weeks 12 through 16.

offqb.sos.oqb.srs.oqb.adj.oqb.sos.dqb.srs.dqb.adj.dqb.exprk.expqb.sosrk.sosqb.srsrk.srs
offqb.sos.oqb.srs.oqb.adj.oqb.sos.dqb.srs.dqb.adj.dqb.exprk.expqb.sosrk.sosqb.srsrk.srs
MIN-0.15-1.8714.86-0.432.1719.2617.0317.20-0.2818.604.048.00
NYG0.51-1.4314.90-0.302.1018.5817.0016.60-0.8225.203.538.60
NYJ-0.62-4.6511.99-0.371.9918.8813.9823.200.2613.206.644.20
OAK0.351.0018.38-0.591.3318.7119.7110.40-0.9525.000.3315.00
SD-0.270.3817.78-0.211.2918.6219.0712.000.0615.000.9114.80
LA0.25-4.8312.18-0.361.2818.6013.4624.40-0.6122.606.115.40
HOU-0.29-5.2412.04-0.471.2718.7413.3124.20-0.1818.806.514.20
CHI0.84-5.0612.340.021.1918.3413.5324.40-0.8223.006.256.60
NO-0.556.7423.82-0.181.0818.3124.903.800.3710.40-5.6526.40
BUF-1.233.4619.90-0.050.9517.9720.857.001.184.80-2.5021.00
CAR-0.843.4820.36-0.160.4517.9920.807.600.678.00-3.0320.40
DAL-0.283.5320.52-0.520.3617.2320.898.40-0.2418.80-3.1722.20
PIT-0.984.3621.14-0.450.3617.0621.507.000.5410.00-4.0023.60
TB-0.822.1319.80-0.450.3617.7320.178.600.3711.40-1.7620.20
BAL-0.23-2.7914.43-0.040.3417.0014.7721.000.1914.603.1311.20
ARI0.25-2.1515.230.150.0917.3015.3322.20-0.1016.002.2412.00
SF1.04-0.4616.130.150.0917.3216.2117.40-0.9023.400.5414.80
CLE-0.56-3.7712.89-0.72-0.0517.0512.8426.00-0.1617.753.728.50
DEN2.77-7.6611.400.17-0.2417.3411.1628.40-2.6031.607.423.60
SEA0.28-0.8216.500.09-0.4617.1016.0418.80-0.1917.000.3616.60
MIA0.56-4.1713.42-0.07-0.4916.2012.9324.80-0.6321.603.688.80
WAS-0.251.3718.18-0.01-0.6716.5717.5115.800.2411.80-2.0419.80
CIN-0.892.0918.560.31-0.7215.9317.8314.601.194.60-2.8121.80
ATL0.774.1621.48-0.01-0.8516.9420.638.20-0.7823.00-5.0125.40
IND-1.024.6121.58-0.20-0.9016.0520.688.200.826.40-5.5026.60
DET-0.382.6719.22-0.39-1.0316.2318.1913.200.0015.20-3.7023.60
PHI0.44-5.0812.390.13-1.1215.8611.2728.80-0.3118.203.969.80
NE-0.314.4120.850.22-1.7715.0219.0811.000.5311.00-6.1826.00
KC1.34-3.5813.890.60-1.8716.2812.0324.40-0.7421.201.7213.60
TEN0.042.4920.370.48-2.6815.4517.6918.250.4411.00-5.1725.75
GB0.795.4522.690.22-2.7014.6620.008.80-0.5722.60-8.1530.20
JAC-0.301.3418.730.38-2.7814.5515.9519.600.689.40-4.1223.60

DAAM SRS Definitions

qb.sos.o / qb.sos.dStrength of Schedule score. For offenses (qb.sos.o), it's the average PPR points allowed by the defenses a particular offense faced within the screen. For defenses (qb.sos.d), it is the converse.
qb.srs.o / qb.srs.dSRS (Simple Rating System) score. For offenses (qb.srs.o), this is the rating of the offense relative to league average, where positive scores indicate better offenses. For defenses (qb.srs.d), it is the converse, and negative scores indicate better defenses. Similar to DVOA.
qb.adj.o / qb.adj.dAdjusted QB score. For offenses (qb.adj.o), this is the average output plus SRS score. For defenses (qb.adj.d), this is average allowed output minus SRS score.
qb.expQB Expected score. This is defined as qb.adj.o minus qb.srs.d. It is meant to represent a predicted QB output based on what the offense normally scores, and what the defense normally allows.
qb.sosStrength of Schedule Differential. This measures the gap in schedule strengths for a particular matchup, with the goal of indicating unconventional plays.
qb.srsSRS Differential. This measures the gap in "Positional Power" for a particular matchup, with the goal of indicating unconventional plays.

I’ve sorted this table from highest QB.SRS.D to lowest. Positive SRS score for a defense indicates a weaker defense, so it stands to reason that a higher average score across a multi-week window indicates a softer fantasy playoff schedule.

One team that intrigues me is Buffalo, with an average Defensive SRS of 0.95 for Weeks 12 through 16. Let’s take a closer look at their schedule!

wkoffdefhmqb.sos.dqb.srs.dqb.adj.drk.dSOSrk.dSRSrk.dQB
12BUFJAC1-0.58-0.0917.14221517
13BUFOAK0-0.361.0419.31171925
14BUFPIT1-0.180.3716.37161612
15BUFCLE1-0.154.7521.09153029
16BUFMIA11.03-1.3115.9621211

What I take away from this subset of data is that Tyrod Taylor will be a great QB to deploy in playoff weeks, particularly in Week 15 with CLE coming to town. If you happen to make it to a Week 16 final, I wouldn’t be afraid of MIA either. Taylor has clearly shown he can produce against tough defenses (see MNF @ SEA), even in divisional matchups. Also of note is that BUF plays four of its next five games at home.

I also think Derek Carr is an interesting target for playoff weeks. His average Defensive SRS score for Weeks 12 through 16 is 1.33. Here is his schedule broken out for further scrutiny:

wkoffdefhmqb.sos.dqb.srs.dqb.adj.drk.dSOSrk.dSRSrk.dQB
12OAKCAR1-1.092.5419.62302727
13OAKBUF1-0.490.4916.55181714
14OAKKC00.68-1.9916.7561015
15OAKSD0-0.940.7418.80291923
16OAKIND1-1.134.8621.86313131

Immediately, the Week 16 game vs IND jumps out at us as an opportunity to exploit a weak passing defense traveling cross-country in what should be a high-scoring game. Also of note is that the toughest projected matchup (at KC) still projects Carr into an “average for him” scoring range, which we will definitely take this season. Average to above-average Derek Carr is a QB we definitely want on our team when money is on the line.

If you’d like to play around with the numbers, I’ve posted Playoff DAAM to Google Sheets.


Hyperfocus on Week 11

First, an Important Note

If you’re a frequent reader, you recognize I generate a massive amount of visualizations and data each week. Hopefully you gain some benefit from it (as I have) and can exercise it in your weekly decision-making.

My intent is to provide as much data as possible, in various formats, for you to use in your own way. Ideally, you’ll be able to sift through what is presented and make your own informed decisions.

While I will offer up my suggestions based on how I read the data, it is by no means the best way to do so. At the end of the day, trust your judgment (what your eyes, brain, and experience whisper to you) and make the best choice for your teams.

Now, on with the data dump!

DAAM the Torpedos!

Below are the DAAM positional tables for Week 11 matchups. These are sortable. I’ve also shared the full DAAM seasonal spreadsheet for anyone who wishes to look at different slices of data. Let me know what you discover, or what you feel can improve. Like I mentioned above, I’m only presenting the data… it’s up to you to interpret and leverage.

DAAM SRS on Google Sheets

And now, on to the players I find most interesting this week…


QBs

Marcus Mariotaat INDHigh Floor / High Ceiling (7th qb.adj vs 27th qb.adj)
Ben Roethlisbergerat CLEHigh Floor / High Ceiling (4th qb.adj vs 26th qb.adj)
Tom Bradyat SFHigh Floor (5th qb.adj vs 22nd qb.adj)
Tyrod Taylorat CINHigh Floor (9th qb.adj vs 21st qb.adj)
Colin Kaepernickvs NEHigh Ceiling (17th qb.adj vs 19th qb.adj)
Andrew Luckvs TENHigh Floor / High Ceiling (3rd qb.adj vs 17th qb.adj)
Russell Wilsonvs PHIHigh Floor (16th qb.adj vs 7th qb.adj)
Aaron Rodgersat WASHigh Floor (2nd qb.adj vs 9th qb.adj)
Derek Carrvs HOUHigh Ceiling (14th qb.adj vs 1st qb.adj)
Kirk Cousinsvs GBHigh Floor (15th qb.adj vs 15th qb.adj)
wkoffdefhmqb.sos.oqb.srs.oqb.adj.ork.oSOSrk.oSRSrk.oQBqb.sos.dqb.srs.dqb.adj.drk.dSOSrk.dSRSrk.dQB
wkoffdefhmqb.sos.oqb.srs.oqb.adj.ork.oSOSrk.oSRSrk.oQBqb.sos.dqb.srs.dqb.adj.drk.dSOSrk.dSRSrk.dQB
11NOCAR0-0.556.7423.82811-1.092.5419.62262424
11PITCLE0-0.984.3621.14354-0.154.7521.09142626
11TENIND00.042.4920.3717107-1.134.8621.86272727
11JACDET0-0.311.3418.73111412-1.206.1922.56282828
11NESF0-0.314.4120.851045-0.601.4319.31222122
11BUFCIN0-1.233.4619.90189-0.612.1418.99232221
11GBWAS00.795.4522.6925220.37-0.7315.548139
11INDTEN1-1.024.6121.582330.650.3817.4161617
11CARNO1-0.843.4820.36578-0.761.3318.75242020
11DETJAC1-0.392.6719.229911-0.58-0.0917.14201416
11CINBUF1-0.892.0918.5641213-0.490.4916.55181713
11SFNE11.04-0.4616.13271617-0.572.4918.65192319
11DALBAL1-0.283.5320.5213660.86-2.1314.03474
11TBKC0-0.822.1319.80611100.68-1.9916.755914
11WASGB1-0.251.3718.181413150.88-1.3316.9021015
11KCTB11.34-3.5813.89282222-0.322.7319.98162525
11BALDAL0-0.23-2.7914.43152121-0.121.1917.87131918
11SEAPHI10.28-0.8216.502017160.14-2.0015.031287
11OAKHOU10.351.0018.382115140.87-4.6113.13311
11NYGCHI10.51-1.4314.902318190.36-1.3016.4691212
11CLEPIT1-0.56-3.7712.8972324-0.180.3716.37151511
11HOUOAK0-0.29-5.2412.04122828-0.361.0419.31171823
11ARIMIN00.25-2.1515.23192018-0.58-2.8214.222145
11MINARI1-0.15-1.8714.861619200.64-3.8013.86722
11MIALA00.56-4.1713.422424230.31-2.4515.161068
11LAMIA10.25-4.8312.181825271.03-1.3115.9611110
11PHISEA00.44-5.0812.392227250.31-2.7714.471156
11CHINYG00.84-5.0612.34262626-0.85-3.5613.862533

RBs

Ezekiel Elliottvs BALHigh Floor
David Johnsonat MINHigh Floor
LeSean McCoyat CINHigh Floor / High Ceiling (5th rb.adj vs 21st rb.adj)
Demarco Murrayat INDHigh Floor / High Ceiling (6th rb.adj vs 23rd rb.adj)
Frank Gorevs TENHigh Floor
LeGarrette Blountat SFHigh Floor / High Ceiling (9th rb.adj vs 28th rb.adj)
Jay Ajayiat LAHigh Floor
Theo Riddickvs JACHigh Floor / High Ceiling (11th rb.adj vs 17th rb.adj)
Isaiah Crowellvs PITHigh Ceiling
LeVeon Bellat CLEHigh Floor / High Ceiling (14th rb.adj vs 26th rb.adj)
Rob Kelleyvs GBHigh Ceiling (Volume dependent)
Latavius Murrayat HOUHigh Ceiling (Volume dependent)
James Starksat WASHigh Ceiling (Upside play)
Spencer Warevs TBHigh Floor
Jordan Howardat NYGHigh Floor
wkoffdefhmrbrb.sos.orb.srs.orb.adj.ork.oSOSrk.oSRSrk.oRBrb.sos.drb.srs.drb.adj.drk.dSOSrk.dSRSrk.dRB
wkoffdefhmrbrb.sos.orb.srs.orb.adj.ork.oSOSrk.oSRSrk.oRBrb.sos.drb.srs.drb.adj.drk.dSOSrk.dSRSrk.dRB
11NESF01.752.7025.7626109-2.119.3333.60262828
11CLEPIT10.552.2723.71171113-2.767.3132.67272727
11PITCLE00.371.5723.59161214-3.186.0931.49282626
11CARNO1-1.07-5.2619.25824220.914.8928.4292525
11GBWAS01.06-12.338.482228280.012.2925.69152324
11TENIND0-0.564.7728.071156-0.584.8325.46202423
11KCTB10.82-4.0821.032022170.481.6025.36132222
11BUFCIN0-0.436.1328.2212250.59-0.5624.27111421
11SFNE10.67-1.4619.86191820-0.40-1.1123.97191320
11HOUOAK0-0.42-2.3019.481419210.330.4323.91141719
11OAKHOU1-1.256.6430.71611-0.351.5523.44182118
11DETJAC1-2.123.5524.862911-1.051.5423.42222017
11CHINYG0-1.45-0.9620.9641718-1.551.2423.22251916
11CINBUF11.11-0.3323.81231612-1.48-0.5323.13241515
11JACDET0-1.15-4.4017.7172324-0.741.1621.64211814
11ARIMIN0-1.385.0929.37544-1.300.3021.34231613
11PHISEA01.713.6027.1825870.54-4.6721.0412412
11MIALA01.350.4625.55241310-0.15-1.6220.75171211
11TBKC00.91-6.4317.212126252.80-3.8719.392710
11WASGB10.65-0.1522.611815150.60-3.7818.981089
11INDTEN1-2.183.6525.871781.11-2.6918.737118
11LAMIA10.07-5.4816.991525261.19-7.0018.62527
11SEAPHI12.35-3.2220.662820192.02-4.6218.60356
11NOCAR0-0.434.4329.4213631.02-3.9918.48865
11BALDAL01.84-6.6818.322727231.60-3.3518.374104
11NYGCHI1-1.700.2022.35314160.00-3.6216.781693
11DALBAL1-0.855.7730.1010322.91-8.2615.70112
11MINARI1-0.99-4.0716.78921271.13-6.0215.57631

WRs

O'dell Beckhamvs CHIHigh Floor / High Ceiling (10th wr.adj vs 28th wr.adj)
Mike Evansat KCHigh Floor / High Ceiling (6th wr.adj vs 27th wr.adj)
Tyreek Hillvs TBHigh Ceiling
Rishard Matthewsat INDHigh Ceiling
Allen Robinsonvs DETHigh Floor
Breshad Perrimanat DALHigh Ceiling
TY Hiltonvs TENHigh Floor / High Ceiling
Donte Moncriefvs TENHigh Floor
Eddie Royalat NYGHigh Ceiling
Antonio Brownat CLEObvious
Desean Jacksonvs GBHigh Ceiling (check health)
Davante Adamsat WASHigh Floor / High Ceiling (assuming Norman on Jordy)
AJ Greenvs BUFHigh Floor
Dez Bryantvs BALHigh Ceiling
Cole Beasleyvs BALHigh Floor
Jeremy Kerleyvs NEHigh Ceiling
Doug Baldwinvs PHIHigh Ceiling
Marvin Jonesvs JACHigh Ceiling (assuming Ramsey on Tate)
Anquan Boldinvs JACHigh Floor
Terrelle Pryorvs PITHigh Floor
Corey Colemanvs PITHigh Ceiling
Adam Thielenvs ARIHigh Floor
Stefon Diggsvs ARIHigh Floor
Jordan Matthewsat SEAHigh Floor
Amari Coopervs HOUHigh Ceiling
Michael Crabtreevs HOUHigh Floor
Larry Fitzgeraldat MINHigh Floor (check health)
wkoffdefhmwr.sos.owr.srs.owr.adj.ork.oSOSrk.oSRSrk.oWRwr.sos.dwr.srs.dwr.adj.drk.dSOSrk.dSRSrk.dWR
wkoffdefhmwr.sos.owr.srs.owr.adj.ork.oSOSrk.oSRSrk.oWRwr.sos.dwr.srs.dwr.adj.drk.dSOSrk.dSRSrk.dWR
11NYGCHI12.961.7337.6527910-1.217.2744.61262828
11TBKC00.582.2939.4918860.421.7340.39152127
11NOCAR0-2.6818.3355.13522-1.281.5040.26271926
11HOUOAK0-2.58-7.9527.8562526-0.561.4339.94211725
11CARNO11.35-4.0931.49242020-1.283.8639.77282524
11KCTB12.80-8.0228.362626240.371.4339.66161823
11TENIND01.53-6.3329.69252223-0.751.9138.85242222
11JACDET0-0.041.3039.2214107-0.633.3338.74222421
11BALDAL01.22-2.0334.842215140.811.2738.7051520
11INDTEN1-0.20-2.7333.401317170.090.8938.38181419
11NESF0-0.42-7.0027.791224271.30-0.4038.292918
11LAMIA1-0.79-0.9935.99913120.694.3338.1282717
11CHINYG00.57-1.0934.61171416-0.77-1.5338.0525616
11PITCLE0-3.0311.1448.252440.264.2438.04172615
11WASGB10.20-0.7234.991612130.590.1837.26111014
11GBWAS0-0.8120.7157.96811-0.650.2037.07231213
11MIALA0-1.05-2.8433.20718190.670.8836.3791312
11CINBUF1-0.493.0638.701079-0.032.9236.17192311
11DALBAL10.85-2.6434.782116151.16-1.1935.693710
11SFNE13.24-14.2922.332828280.621.3535.2510169
11SEAPHI10.79-6.8930.282023220.71-2.7434.97748
11DETJAC10.123.1839.1415680.98-1.9634.75457
11BUFCIN0-2.74-5.4430.8642121-0.47-1.1634.502086
11CLEPIT1-2.76-3.5833.28319180.500.1933.7412115
11MINARI1-0.430.2237.451111110.471.6332.3613204
11PHISEA01.22-9.1028.042327251.96-4.4731.81133
11OAKHOU10.738.0844.8619550.77-6.0528.15622
11ARIMIN0-5.4114.3651.811330.45-9.2526.971411

TEs

Ladarius Greenat CLEHigh Ceiling
Julius Thomasat DETHigh Floor / High Ceiling (11th te.adj vs 27th te.adj)
Charles Clayat CINHigh Ceiling
Delanie Walkerat INDHigh Floor / High Ceiling (5th te.adj vs 25th te.adj)
Martellus Bennettat SFHigh Ceiling
Jordan Reedvs GBHigh Floor
Vernon Davisvs GBHigh Ceiling
Jack Doylevs TENHigh Floor
CJ Fiedorowiczat OAKHigh Floor
Tyler Eifertvs BUFHigh Floor / High Ceiling
Jimmy Grahamvs PHIHigh Ceiling
Eric Ebronvs JACHigh Floor
wkoffdefhmte.sos.ote.srs.ote.adj.ork.oSOSrk.oSRSrk.oTEte.sos.dte.srs.dte.adj.drk.dSOSrk.dSRSrk.dTE
wkoffdefhmte.sos.ote.srs.ote.adj.ork.oSOSrk.oSRSrk.oTEte.sos.dte.srs.dte.adj.drk.dSOSrk.dSRSrk.dTE
11PITCLE0-0.190.5412.55151214-0.847.3720.79192828
11JACDET01.031.3513.9524911-1.275.2919.50242427
11BUFCIN00.11-2.238.081821250.276.0519.47122626
11TENIND0-0.613.4817.801385-1.695.3318.54272525
11NOCAR00.91-1.6811.08231920-2.287.0818.47282724
11HOUOAK00.643.6016.362178-1.611.3015.31261923
11CINBUF1-1.27-1.3911.8571818-1.521.5714.28252122
11WASGB1-1.418.2022.336321.210.0814.2051321
11CLEPIT10.19-3.159.02192424-1.260.9814.13231820
11CHINYG00.05-1.1012.06171716-0.901.3713.85202019
11INDTEN1-1.057.2619.898440.890.7313.54101618
11BALDAL0-1.490.3114.57413100.911.6013.5392217
11NESF0-1.7512.0525.08311-1.151.9413.35222316
11GBWAS00.64-6.897.022027270.980.9612.8081715
11ARIMIN01.51-7.694.322828280.06-1.4112.72141014
11CARNO1-2.148.9120.451230.40-0.8112.45111113
11KCTB11.36-0.0713.09261412-0.310.6711.99161512
11DETJAC11.17-3.829.43252523-1.01-2.5911.5821711
11NYGCHI1-1.00-0.4512.4591515-0.41-2.3111.4017810
11OAKHOU1-0.43-2.019.93142021-0.29-4.4211.221549
11PHISEA00.05-2.9011.85162317-0.710.1810.6218148
11SFNE1-0.610.5811.841211190.09-0.2210.3813127
11LAMIA1-0.92-2.779.681122222.18-2.889.87266
11MIALA01.41-6.307.672726261.07-2.169.79695
11TBKC0-1.433.7116.455670.98-6.488.61734
11DALBAL1-0.960.8614.79101092.18-4.186.60153
11SEAPHI1-2.065.2317.012561.44-7.476.02322
11MINARI10.77-0.5612.812216131.29-8.845.04411

Game Script Splits (Weeks 1 – 10)

GSS plots for the first ten weeks of the 2016 season are linked below. If you’re interested in visualizing a particular subset of data, please let me know!

Offensive GSS (Full Game, 1st Half, & 2nd Half)
Defensive GSS (Full Game, 1st Half, & 2nd Half)


Air Yard Overlays (Weeks 1 – 10)

AYO plots for the first ten weeks of the 2016 season are linked below. These are broken down into Offensive and Defensive AYOs, as well as Defensive AYOs by Depth Chart. If you’re interested in visualizing a particular subset of data, please let me know!

Offensive AYO: Full |
Defensive AYO: Full |
Defensive Depth Chart AYO: WR1, WR2, WR3 | RB1, RB2 | TE1, TE2


Asides & Errata

Thanks for spending your time on me this week. Hopefully the visualizations and ideas above provide some insight this week as you make selections.

As always, if you have questions about the data presented, please find me on twitter @FantasyADHD

Josh Hornsby

Josh Hornsby leads engineering teams in the oil & gas industry. His background in new product development, combined with nearly 20 years of data-driven fantasy experience, compels him to think outside the box and wreck the echo chamber of current fantasy analysis. Josh loves to challenge popular thinking and typically does so with numbers in hand. You can find him on Twitter @FantasyADHD

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