Scatterbrained: Week 15 Tips & Trends

Scatterbrained: Week 15 Tips & Trends

Scattered Thinking About Week 14

David Owned Week 14

We all thought Le’Veon Bell owned Week 14, but he was really just renting it from David.

Yes, the same David that slew Goliath.

Across the fantasy-sphere, we’ve seen a myriad of hard-luck and bad-beat stories flowing in from the first week of the fantasy playoffs. I have my own that I won’t recount here because I’m hopeful we’ve all reached at least Stage Five in the Kübler-Ross Model1 and are ready to move on.

Part of my Stage Five mechanism is realizing that this result was definitely in the range of outcomes. You think, “Well, obviously it was, moron, because it happened!” As we set lineups filled with a murderer’s row of savvy waiver claims, long-view draft picks, and tide-turning trades, not a single one of us believed we would sit on the sidelines in Week 15 while a weak roster moved into the money round.

Oftentimes, when we view projections & expectations, we fail to recognize that these lie on some type of Normal Distribution. Each player has his own distribution, and our lineups have a combined distribution.

Envision the matchup as the blue distribution (ours) versus the green distribution (opponent).  We see that the overlay between the two is quite small compared to the overall area of each. However, if the sample on the blue curve (our fantasy score) is on an x-point less than the green curve (their fantasy score), we lose. What’s required for this to happen is a highly improbable result for each team. Essentially, if we played our Week 14 matchups 100 times, a result like we saw last week might happen twice.

Can we insure against this type of result? I doubt it. With the information available, we define possible outcomes as best as possible. NFL games are chaotic events with small sample sizes (only 16 games each season), high leverage events within each sample (injuries, turnovers), and outside factors that may suppress or amplify these events (weather, officials).

We must keep in mind that the projections and expectations we use in our lineup building should consider the entire distribution of outcomes. Often we reduce this to Floor and Ceiling projections. Keep in mind, though, that the Floor is not really rock bottom (which is almost always zero), but the worst result we would see across two- or three-sigma (95-99.7%) of cases.

The RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projection app manages this elegantly by leveraging historical results from situations similar to the matchup in question.

Likewise, Mike Beers (@beerswater) thoroughly examined this concept when presenting his Magnum Opus on MFL10 roster construction.

Ultimately, I encourage you to consider the entire range of outcomes when setting lineups weekly. Looking at projections any other way is simply an attempt to catch a falling knife.


Hyperfocus on Week 15

First, an important note: If you’re a frequent reader, you recognize I generate a massive amount of visualizations and data each week. Hopefully you gain some benefit from it (as I have) and can exercise it in your weekly decision-making.

My intent is to provide as much data as possible, in various formats, for you to use in your own way. Ideally, you’ll be able to sift through what is presented and make your own informed decisions.

While I will offer up my suggestions based on how I read the data, it is by no means the best way to do so. At the end of the day, trust your judgment (what your eyes, brain, and experience whisper to you) and make the best choice for your teams.

Now, on with the data dump!

New! Matchup Data

Week 15 FantasyADHD Matchups on Google Drive

This week, I’ve changed how I present Game Script Splits (GSS) and Air Yard Overlays (AYO) by moving to a matchup-based format.

Above, you see all the games on the Week 15 slate organized into their own folders. Each of these folders have been shared (via my Google Drive) for you to peruse for GSS and AYO data.

Now, let’s take a peek inside a game folder…

Here you will find every GSS and AYO plot for that particular matchup for comparison. Hopefully this will help you perform an apples-to-apples comparison for that particular game, and reduce the hunt for a particular plot to a minimum.

DAAM SRS & Adjusted Projections

Below are the DAAM SRS positional tables for Week 14 matchups. These are sortable. I’ve also shared the full DAAM seasonal spreadsheet for anyone who wishes to look at different slices of data. Let me know what you discover, or what you feel can improve. Like I mentioned above, I’m only presenting the data; it’s up to you to interpret and leverage.

DAAM SRS on Google Sheets

And now, on to the players I find most interesting this week…


QBs

PlayerDefenseComment
Kirk Cousinsvs CAR
  • QB1 again this week per Expectation.
  • CAR has been an average vs QB over the last 6 games (18.42).
  • WAS QB is 2nd in Expected Floor (15.68).
  • TD Dependence just below average (38.9%).
Joe Flaccovs PHI
  • Flacco is 8th in Adjusted QB Points over last 6 weeks.
  • PHI provides a 13.3% Adjusted Gain.
  • Weather is a concern (rain, breezy) so be prepared to switch out.
Matt Ryanvs SF
  • ATL receives a 10.8% boost in Adjusted Expectation vs SF against an already high floor (13.26 - 5th).
  • SF has played only an average strength of schedule at QB, whereas ATL is well above average (0.413).
  • Stack with Devonta Freeman & Julio Jones (or Aldrick Robinson if Julio ruled out).
Jameis Winstonat DAL
  • Game will be played indoors.
  • DAL concedes the highest Adjusted Floor to QB (13.11).
  • Very low TD Dependence (21.1%).
Colin Kaepernickat ATL
  • Game will be played indoors.
  • ATL concedes less points to QB than Expectation in last 4 contests.
  • Speculative play based on SF attempting to keep up with ATL on the scoreboard.
  • Concern about SF "checking out" of this game like last week.
Cam Newtonat WAS
  • Rain in the forecast with some breeze.
  • CAR receiving a 32.0% Adjusted Gain boost from WAS, highest of the week.
  • WAS ranked 31st in QB SRS and 26th in RB SRS - I expect Cam to add solid rushing numbers in this game, perhaps a TD.
Trevor Siemianvs NE
  • Punt play based on expected volume.
  • DEN has 4th lowest TD Dependence at QB (33.4%).
  • NE yields above-average floor to QB (10.95).
Matt Moorevs NYJ (Sat)
  • Punt play based on NYJ's lack of familiarity with Moore should boost ceiling.
  • NYJ have played the 2nd weakest schedule over the last 6 weeks.
Tyrod Taylorvs CLE
  • CLE is allowing average scoring to QB, but well above average to RB. You're relying on rushing numbers to boost passing totals, which should be lower with weather (snow + wind).
  • Risky play as McCoy + Gillislee could see bulk of work in slow game.
offdefhmqb.exprk.expqb.adj.oqb.adj.dqb.gainexp.notdrk.notdtd.depoff.notddef.notdqb.sos.oqb.sos.dqb.sosqb.srs.oqb.srs.d
AVE18.3518.370.0%10.3743.0%10.3810.36-0.014-0.0140.0000.0000.000
TBDAL021.66720.1019.947.8%15.79127.1%13.0513.11-0.259-0.136-0.1231.823-0.900
WASCAR125.68125.2818.421.6%15.68238.9%15.0010.84-0.783-0.347-0.4367.5161.494
TENKC024.83323.4819.895.8%15.55337.4%12.9612.96-1.2320.872-2.1046.371-3.418
SFATL021.49821.3218.670.8%14.28433.6%13.8710.93-0.655-0.518-0.1372.5111.163
GBCHI024.96226.9216.90-7.3%13.67545.3%14.709.60-0.778-0.225-0.5539.5012.752
ATLSF123.28621.0220.6110.8%13.26643.0%11.2612.440.4130.0140.3992.133-2.453
BALPHI123.54520.7921.1313.3%13.04744.6%11.4811.96-0.4760.635-1.1112.644-3.060
NEDEN021.18925.3314.74-16.4%12.49841.0%14.728.46-1.866-0.773-1.0936.9055.335
CARWAS020.721215.6923.0232.0%11.86942.7%8.5113.480.8480.995-0.147-3.015-7.025
DENNE117.311916.3819.445.7%11.521033.4%10.9510.950.7240.3480.376-2.188-3.217
NOARI023.65422.2319.906.4%11.431151.7%11.5610.30-0.538-0.6310.0934.393-0.091
DALTB120.841119.6219.586.2%11.321245.7%10.9010.780.3920.439-0.0471.124-1.990
SEALA120.951020.5418.692.0%11.131346.9%11.869.520.2510.272-0.0210.9530.099
KCTEN117.182113.7122.2625.3%11.031435.8%9.1612.41-0.0941.187-1.281-3.714-7.558
OAKSD018.181519.3817.27-6.2%10.891540.1%11.959.43-0.0180.048-0.0661.1170.420
ARINO120.111320.4917.85-1.9%10.571647.5%10.0010.99-0.0040.952-0.9561.327-1.483
PHIBAL015.882515.4818.602.6%10.531733.7%10.9210.030.7610.3510.410-2.450-1.270
DETNYG013.642816.7415.33-18.5%10.361824.0%10.819.960.269-0.6270.896-1.8684.560
CINPIT117.391819.3116.28-10.0%9.551945.1%10.968.86-0.780-0.7930.0130.8983.483
BUFCLE117.951718.1918.12-1.3%9.462047.3%10.439.35-0.468-0.8820.414-0.0972.536
INDMIN017.212020.3915.43-15.6%9.252146.2%10.549.15-0.9330.075-1.0082.8423.276
JACHOU018.111617.5018.903.5%8.922250.8%9.639.660.2040.0600.144-0.816-0.189
MININD112.322914.3816.39-14.4%8.882327.9%10.628.540.5860.637-0.051-3.801-0.403
CLEBUF016.432314.4020.1014.1%8.842446.2%9.1510.020.8400.2500.590-4.516-2.519
PITCIN015.932417.1417.16-7.0%8.702545.4%9.219.820.0080.161-0.153-1.8130.333
MIANYJ016.742217.2317.84-2.8%8.262650.6%8.3710.180.132-0.9201.052-1.5322.442
NYJMIA115.352612.5721.5822.1%7.642750.2%7.3710.810.261-0.5570.818-6.514-2.121
CHIGB113.702712.7919.617.1%7.272846.9%7.4510.331.1691.1300.039-5.457-4.087
SDOAK118.361418.8917.77-2.8%5.832968.3%6.839.51-0.499-0.255-0.2440.6680.741
LASEA011.753111.1418.605.5%5.743051.1%6.109.830.613-1.1561.769-7.2912.408
HOUJAC18.063211.7214.85-31.2%4.923138.9%6.109.361.165-0.5491.714-5.8744.227
NYGDET111.903017.1712.88-30.7%3.313272.2%5.758.050.303-0.5050.808-1.7806.515

RBs

PlayerDefenseComment
Le'Veon Bellat CIN
  • Expensive chalk.
  • Last game @ CIN (12.7.14) scored 51.5 DK pts in a 3-TD effort.
  • CIN yields above-average Floor (21.08) to RB over last 6.
  • Lesean McCoy
  • Mike Gillislee
vs CLE
  • McCoy is a no-brainer for me. Gillislee could see extra work depending on game flow.
  • CLE yields 2nd-most to RB (29.29) and provides BUF RB a 17.1% Adjusted Gain to their 5th-ranked Adjusted Output.
Devonta Freemanvs SF
  • Folks will be off him in dailies this week after a virtual no-show in LA.
  • SF have given up above expectation totals to RB 3o f 4 games when traveling east (CAR, BUF, CHI) for early kicks.
  • Tevin Coleman was a nice play before his price jumped.
  • Dion Lewis
  • James White
at DEN
  • ATL showed the blueprint to beat DEN at Mile High, and I think NE will pull ideas from that gameplan. Passing to RBs in leveraged coverage vs LBs should put Lewis and White in prime positions to rack up YAC and potentially receiving TDs.
  • Re: Lewis. Call it a hunch.
Latavius Murrayvs SD
  • OAK is the strongest RB offense SD have faced all season.
  • SD are yielding well above expectation to RB at home.
  • OAK 3rd in Expectation (33.27).
Jordan Howardat GB
  • CHI receive a 12.9% Adjusted Gain from GB this week.
  • Jordan Howard ranks 9th in Adjusted Floor (21.78) over last 6 games.
  • GB 22nd in Adjusted Floor Allowed (20.25) over last 6 games.
David Johnsonvs NO
  • High-floor, expensive chalk
Jay Ajayivs NYJ (Sat)
  • MIA receives a 21.3% Adjusted Gain from NYJ this week.
  • Ajayi has average TD Dependence over last 6 games (20.9%)
  • NYJ ranks 30th in Adjusted RB Floor Allowance (22.29) and 28th in Adjusted RB Allowance (27.30) over last 6 games.
Isaiah Crowellat BUF
  • CLE RB receives a 18.5% Adjusted Gain boost from BUF.
  • BUF yield average Adjusted Output and Adjusted Floor to RB (26.86, 18.37 respectively)
Kenneth Farrowvs OAK
  • Dirt cheap volume play.
offdefhmrb.exprk.exprb.adj.orb.adj.drb.gainexp.notdrk.notdtd.depoff.notddef.notdrb.sos.orb.sos.drb.sosrk.sosrk.oSOSrk.dSOSrb.srs.orb.srs.drb.srsrk.srsrk.oSRSrk.dSRS
AVE23.8523.80-0.5%18.7420.9%18.7918.700.0470.0470.0000.0000.0000.000
NOARI031.79539.2517.46-19.0%22.58829.0%31.5010.86-2.854-1.555-1.2992813215.1998.8116.3888132
LASEA011.903015.3220.16-22.3%9.952916.4%13.2815.320.650-1.1291.77952231-8.8296.425-15.254322830
GBCHI011.213111.5822.89-3.2%8.523124.0%7.7019.000.223-0.9121.13591930-11.045-0.183-10.862303114
MININD116.312720.3519.75-19.9%12.232725.0%15.0815.93-1.120-0.794-0.32619729-2.3995.175-7.574262029
PHIBAL024.261527.5920.83-12.1%22.02109.2%21.6519.23-0.373-0.7640.3911011283.8247.359-3.53522931
TBDAL013.042914.8521.68-12.2%11.322813.2%12.4417.381.267-0.6581.92542827-8.9042.276-11.180312925
TENKC027.811230.1521.90-7.7%19.811628.8%21.4517.31-2.098-0.603-1.495292266.4904.3022.18813628
NYGDET117.412518.8322.60-7.5%17.6722-1.5%17.1719.341.075-0.5501.62562725-4.7330.857-5.590252517
OAKSD033.27337.2320.69-10.6%22.04933.8%27.7013.77-1.396-0.522-0.8742552414.4543.08611.3683226
WASCAR124.641423.6924.834.0%20.061518.6%17.3721.65-0.277-0.4600.1831214230.9550.3140.641161516
DALTB128.681030.3821.69-5.6%22.73720.8%21.7519.61-1.130-0.420-0.710236225.9113.7032.20812727
CLEBUF022.061918.6126.8618.5%18.372016.8%18.2718.812.373-0.3112.68413121-4.653-0.365-4.288232413
DENNE116.792616.1624.893.9%13.912617.2%12.4120.660.954-0.2531.20772320-6.7250.889-7.614272718
KCTEN110.883213.5621.55-19.8%9.773010.2%11.0817.772.023-0.2452.26832919-10.0650.214-10.279293015
ARINO130.62833.7020.06-9.1%24.71419.3%26.6416.30-1.001-0.094-0.907268187.9421.1886.7547420
DETNYG019.012419.4223.23-2.1%17.92215.7%17.5919.00-0.299-0.058-0.241161317-3.8371.420-5.257242222
BALPHI122.781724.5321.94-7.1%19.321715.2%20.9916.862.307-0.0282.33523016-0.6391.430-2.069201723
NYJMIA130.08927.9925.817.5%23.78521.0%21.9620.48-0.1720.141-0.3131815153.6811.0822.599111119
CHIGB130.66727.1627.3412.9%23.37623.8%21.7820.25-2.0610.179-2.240313143.257-4.7167.9735125
PITCIN033.18433.5323.96-1.0%28.28114.8%26.2021.08-0.6640.194-0.8582410139.2571.4167.8416321
SEALA123.771621.3726.4811.2%19.121919.5%17.6220.390.1310.272-0.141151712-4.005-2.001-2.004182310
JACHOU021.892122.6123.08-3.2%20.22147.6%20.8318.27-0.1430.286-0.429221611-0.026-0.8620.836151612
INDMIN019.102320.3222.50-6.0%14.772522.7%14.1119.150.6140.3340.280112110-3.249-1.243-2.006192111
SFATL028.491124.1527.9718.0%21.671224.0%19.3121.020.4960.548-0.052142091.270-6.7267.9964132
NEDEN030.88629.1325.746.0%24.80319.7%21.8821.670.1880.575-0.387201883.747-2.5216.2689108
HOUJAC122.042022.2123.73-0.8%19.241812.7%19.2618.69-0.3560.723-1.07927127-0.701-2.0111.31014189
CINPIT120.712223.3721.05-11.4%16.202421.8%18.2616.601.0150.9840.03113256-1.2301.530-2.760211924
SDOAK126.281325.1224.994.6%21.851116.9%23.1517.15-0.8501.154-2.00430950.967-4.8085.77510144
MIANYJ022.311818.3927.3021.3%17.662320.9%13.6822.292.3761.2161.1608324-6.312-4.428-1.88417266
CARWAS014.022811.9325.2517.5%7.043249.8%8.3217.030.9701.251-0.28117243-11.832-4.085-7.74728327
BUFCLE138.77133.1229.2917.1%27.94227.9%23.9122.711.0331.430-0.397212627.919-5.12713.046253
ATLSF137.58227.5634.1736.3%20.601345.2%16.8622.79-1.4091.560-2.96932414.309-12.40016.709181

WRs

PlayerDefenseComment
  • Jamison Crowder
  • Pierre Garcon
vs CAR
  • WAS WR receive a 12.3% Adjusted Gain from CAR.
  • CAR rank 28th in Adjusted Floor (36.45) over last 6 games.
Steve Smiffvs PHI
  • PHI concede 46.72 Adjusted WR Points over last 6 games, and grant BAL a 21.1% Adjusted Gain.
  • BAL have played the weakest WR schedule over last 6 games.
  • PHI have played 2nd toughest WR schedule over last 6 games.
  • Weather should temper expectations.
Tyreek Hillvs TEN
  • KC are scripting ways to get Hill the ball weekly.
  • TEN concede highest Adjusted Allowance to WR over last 6 games (50.09).
  • KC WR receive a 36.7% Adjusted Gain from TEN this week (highest) with average TD Dependence.
Stefon Diggsvs IND
  • Will draw Vontae Davis some, but has proven that he can beat coverage. Also will move around formation to exploit matchups.
  • Incredibly low TD Dependence (7.4%) for MIN WR.
  • High Adjusted Floor (38.26) for MIN WR.
  • Game will be played indoors.
Dez Bryantvs TB
  • Expect low ownership due to horrible week vs NYG.
  • TB concede a 7.9% Adjusted Gain to WR this week.
  • TB allow 10th-highest Adjusted Floor to WR over last 6 games (33.83)
JJ Nelsonvs NO
  • Cheap WR volume play
Michael Thomasat ARI
  • Expect low ownership due to missing last week.
  • Should run most advantageous routes against stout ARI coverage.
Rishard Matthewsat KC
  • Exceptional route runner against KC defense yielding above average to WR over last 6 games.
  • Expect low ownership due to non-existence of pass game vs DEN last week.
  • Ty Montgomery
  • Randall Cobb
vs CHI
  • Even with poor weather, expect GB to run short/intermediate passing game as usual.
  • Montgomery appears to have taken back over as primary RB.
  • Reliant on volume.
Kenny Stillsvs NYJ (Sat)
  • NYJ still concede deep completions to speedy WRs. Cheap GPP play only.
offdefhmwr.exprk.expwr.adj.owr.adj.dwr.gainexp.notdrk.notdtd.depoff.notddef.notdwr.sos.owr.sos.dwr.sosrk.sosrk.oSOSrk.dSOSwr.srs.owr.srs.dwr.srsrk.srsrk.oSRSrk.dSRS
37.3237.410.0%30.9615.9%30.9231.00-0.095-0.0950.0000.0000.0000.000
HOUJAC19.333219.5827.51-52.4%10.6932-14.6%18.3823.522.123-1.4973.62013129-16.23312.009-28.242323132
DETNYG030.162536.7131.09-17.9%28.08206.9%32.3226.981.604-0.7742.37822924-0.5628.209-8.771281930
LASEA041.671033.1045.3225.9%32.841221.2%29.0534.48-0.852-2.7051.8533732-5.657-2.592-3.065192412
CARWAS033.032132.1237.982.8%28.561913.5%26.2032.981.8660.0181.84843014-6.091-1.094-4.997222614
SFATL025.052922.6638.9410.5%23.92274.5%20.7533.49-0.064-1.8561.79252031-16.5162.651-19.167313221
PHIBAL021.603121.3436.851.2%21.19301.9%21.3730.323.0112.0340.9776322-14.390-5.722-8.66827305
ATLSF160.51151.4246.1917.7%49.18118.7%41.4538.53-0.354-1.2940.9407132811.431-5.68917.120236
CLEBUF023.323026.9533.41-13.5%17.933123.1%23.3825.411.1480.2700.87882710-9.7432.572-12.315302920
NOARI053.95246.0445.3117.2%43.16420.0%36.3637.68-0.393-1.0730.680912267.585-6.39613.981573
NYGDET136.041841.5931.30-13.3%26.192327.3%29.2127.870.463-0.0860.5491024163.6207.757-4.13721928
BUFCLE128.442728.5437.73-0.3%24.912612.4%25.3030.85-0.270-0.7930.523111625-7.8941.004-8.898292817
MIANYJ036.261738.5935.21-6.0%29.401818.9%31.1929.27-0.794-1.2550.461129270.8352.737-1.902161322
NYJMIA137.971637.6737.660.8%31.771416.3%32.3530.26-1.071-1.5080.437136300.0080.910-0.902151616
CINPIT129.092632.7133.80-11.1%27.26216.3%29.6828.47-0.339-0.6020.263141522-3.6623.336-6.998242125
SEALA141.301235.6343.4315.9%34.401016.7%30.8634.68-0.447-0.6100.163151123-4.746-4.8150.06914238
OAKSD034.082037.7333.90-9.7%30.91179.3%32.0929.890.2380.0790.1591623130.6193.097-2.478181424
DALTB139.581536.6840.457.9%30.941621.8%28.3433.83-0.194-0.3250.131171820-0.122-1.4061.284131713
SDOAK134.401936.7834.89-6.5%27.002221.5%28.9529.00-0.247-0.193-0.054181717-0.4522.743-3.195201823
MININD140.791339.2438.904.0%37.7677.4%38.2630.051.0151.238-0.223192651.603-5.2596.86210117
JACHOU031.082431.6336.57-1.7%23.512824.4%24.4729.730.1990.432-0.23320228-6.0951.028-7.123252718
CHIGB131.332331.8537.11-1.6%25.032520.1%26.9429.151.1511.537-0.38621284-5.931-3.573-2.358172510
DENNE142.82945.4434.19-5.8%36.40915.0%38.9727.82-0.0540.364-0.418222198.207-1.0909.2977615
PITCIN027.462835.9829.18-23.7%22.602917.7%28.7824.96-0.3500.100-0.450231411-0.8076.840-7.647262027
INDMIN031.912236.9432.56-13.6%25.142421.2%29.7426.52-0.839-0.298-0.541248191.3146.484-5.170231226
WASCAR153.58447.7342.9812.3%44.41217.1%38.8036.45-0.683-0.020-0.66325101510.239-2.78813.0276411
TBDAL043.65739.1541.7311.5%38.66611.4%33.4736.02-0.0710.733-0.804261970.456-5.7666.22211154
GBCHI053.64362.1230.47-13.7%40.95523.7%47.3125.68-1.389-0.487-0.9022742125.7589.04616.7123131
ARINO141.481142.0636.50-1.4%33.181120.0%33.0530.99-1.3770.098-1.475285122.9341.5601.374121019
KCTEN144.03632.2150.0936.7%36.91816.2%26.6441.990.6782.835-2.15729251-3.801-20.11516.3144221
TENKC040.741438.4639.605.9%32.411320.5%28.9834.13-1.6881.233-2.92130364.057-4.0508.107889
NEDEN043.00851.8329.65-17.0%31.591526.5%39.2224.08-3.310-0.282-3.0283111815.1517.9057.2469229
BALPHI152.90543.7046.7221.1%43.31318.1%37.4536.78-1.7481.651-3.39932238.884-9.53218.416152

TEs

PlayerDefenseComment
Jermaine Greshamvs NO
  • May be highly owned, but unavoidable at min price.
  • ARI have averaged over 15 DK pts to TE over the last 4 games.
  • Will assume even more target volume with Floyd released this week.
Greg Olsenat WAS
  • Olsen has withered away over the last few weeks, but I think this is the week he re-asserts himself among top-scoring TE.
  • WAS yields the highest Adjusted Output to TE (22.42) over last 6 games.
Ladarius Greenat CIN
  • While snap totals have been relatively low, his usage has been very high respectively.
  • 2nd-highest Adjusted Gain this week (61.6%).
  • 2nd-highest Floor this week (17.95).
Eric Ebronat NYG
  • Adjusted Gain play (49.1%) as NYG yield 4th-most Adjusted TE Points over last 6 games (17.86).
Garrett Celekat ATL
  • Punt play if you want a contrarian play against Gresham.
Tyler Eifertvs PIT
  • Expensive chalk
Jordan Reedvs CAR
  • Expensive chalk
Ryan Griffinvs JAC
  • Pivot to Gresham at a slightly higher price, but not the guaranteed volume. High ceiling with TDs.
offdefhmte.exprk.expte.adj.ote.adj.dte.gainexp.notdrk.notdtd.depoff.notddef.notdte.sos.ote.sos.dte.sosrk.sosrk.oSOSrk.dSOSte.srs.ote.srs.dte.srsrk.srsrk.oSRSrk.dSRS
13.5913.54-0.8%11.27-5.7%11.2911.260.0540.0540.0000.0000.0000.000
CARWAS019.57510.0922.4293.9%18.3136.4%9.6119.491.0561.176-0.12018272-3.089-10.6327.5433231
PITCIN019.96412.3520.7561.6%17.95410.1%11.4217.500.5350.2630.272141915-2.665-7.7305.0656212
DETNYG014.31139.6017.8649.1%13.53105.4%8.6215.830.770-0.4121.18222224-4.225-1.146-3.079242511
TBDAL020.60317.5916.6217.1%16.64519.3%13.3714.48-0.977-0.506-0.471226264.7890.1164.6738715
CLEBUF012.53178.4817.1847.8%9.921720.8%6.9113.930.956-0.0310.98752620-6.571-5.170-1.40118304
CHIGB111.89199.3016.5127.8%9.881816.9%7.5813.891.4460.4490.99743113-4.770-2.499-2.27122275
NYJMIA18.59294.7018.1382.9%5.932931.0%4.6013.020.1030.0850.018171717-8.696-6.057-2.63923323
WASCAR127.39124.6715.8411.0%22.15219.1%20.3212.72-1.023-0.352-0.6712442310.627-1.30211.929119
SDOAK116.201117.5211.97-7.5%11.891526.6%11.1312.08-0.3040.493-0.7972714124.9131.0473.86610619
NYGDET19.53268.4914.9212.1%6.882727.8%6.3912.041.4060.3161.09033014-6.459-0.696-5.763262913
SFATL016.67816.2614.082.5%13.77817.4%13.0712.03-1.2600.697-1.95732273.121-1.4604.5819118
ARINO110.182110.5113.38-3.2%8.932212.3%8.7811.560.6050.1920.413132116-3.409-1.235-2.174212410
CINPIT117.94717.6513.651.6%12.291331.5%12.2011.33-0.864-1.0530.189158283.4422.8940.548141027
OAKSD09.752310.0913.07-3.4%8.502312.8%8.3211.310.9420.7760.16616255-2.528-1.601-0.92715207
LASEA09.602511.0012.10-12.8%9.9716-3.9%10.0311.16-0.9370.565-1.50230711-2.110-1.033-1.077171812
DALTB114.261414.3813.40-0.8%12.131415.0%12.2211.131.2840.6430.64111298-0.627-2.2691.64212166
INDMIN016.551017.2413.08-4.0%13.76916.8%14.1611.03-0.1230.636-0.7592616104.678-0.0444.7227814
SEALA116.66917.9611.97-7.2%13.081221.5%13.5010.72-0.822-0.069-0.7532510215.4460.2225.2245517
PHIBAL025.33225.4714.00-0.5%22.49111.2%23.7110.70-0.369-1.0830.714813299.1601.3907.7702222
NEDEN014.141516.7311.25-15.5%13.50114.5%14.4510.52-1.966-0.014-1.952311192.7663.770-1.004161230
BUFCLE19.53277.9415.5319.9%5.583041.5%6.7310.30-1.259-1.094-0.16519330-5.3511.517-6.868312823
MIANYJ011.572011.2413.762.9%6.872840.6%8.269.80-0.827-0.479-0.34820925-1.7980.158-1.956201716
JACHOU07.903010.1111.29-21.9%7.88250.3%9.569.591.2560.7920.46412284-2.3271.115-3.442251920
HOUJAC119.37620.4512.07-5.3%14.78623.7%16.639.050.5871.030-0.443212037.7810.5397.2424318
DENNE12.58325.1711.28-50.1%3.3031-28.0%5.808.942.185-0.6342.81913227-7.7081.296-9.004323121
GBCHI09.732410.8312.39-10.2%7.772620.1%10.218.900.782-0.1050.88772322-2.8963.185-6.081272228
MININD110.152214.638.79-30.6%7.892422.2%10.308.79-0.1451.228-1.373291510.7562.364-1.608191425
ATLSF13.98318.079.55-50.6%3.103222.1%6.018.490.901-0.0040.90562418-4.4082.275-6.683302624
TENKC011.961817.278.69-30.7%9.841917.7%13.298.090.1170.711-0.594231864.2542.7141.54013926
NOARI08.852813.439.19-34.1%8.9521-1.2%12.587.88-0.746-1.4320.6861011310.2976.711-6.414291531
BALPHI113.521617.409.28-22.3%9.192032.0%13.037.14-0.997-1.6830.68695322.0398.285-6.246281332
KCTEN114.361218.319.16-21.6%14.647-1.9%18.506.83-0.5720.640-1.212281295.5653.2742.29111429

 Asides & Errata

1. I find it a bit surprising no one has edited this Wiki to include disastrous fantasy playoff defeats as a trigger for grief.

Thanks for spending your time on me this week. Hopefully the visualizations and ideas above provide some insight this week as you make selections.

As always, if you have questions about the data presented, please find me on twitter @FantasyADHD

Josh Hornsby

Josh Hornsby leads engineering teams in the oil & gas industry. His background in new product development, combined with nearly 20 years of data-driven fantasy experience, compels him to think outside the box and wreck the echo chamber of current fantasy analysis. Josh loves to challenge popular thinking and typically does so with numbers in hand. You can find him on Twitter @FantasyADHD

Latest posts by Josh Hornsby (see all)



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *