Week 11 Rankings & Game Flowbotics

Week 11 Rankings & Game Flowbotics

As usual, my weekly picks against the spread and Week 11 rankings are below. The picks and ranks are informed by the matchup data from my Game Flowbotics spreadsheet. Here’s a link to this week’s edition:

Week 11 Game Flowbotics

I’m on the road for work this week. Here are this week’s rapid-fire picks:

PIT at CLE (-3), 40.5-Point Over/Under

Pittsburgh, the better team by DVOA is getting points? Sure, I’ll fade home field advantage. Meanwhile, the Steelers also own the matchup’s biggest mismatch: their fourth-ranked pass defense against the Browns’ 24th-ranked pass offense. This is a serious test for Baker Mayfield.

The Pick:  PIT (+3)

DAL at DET (+3.5), N/A Over/Under

The Cowboys have the top offense in the NFL, and Matthew Stafford might not be under center for the Lions. I hope Jeff Driskel doesn’t go out and scamper all over this wood I’m about to lay.

The Pick:  DAL (-3.5)

HOU at BAL (-4), 48.5-Point Over/Under

Baltimore rates better than Houston by DVOA in both offense and defense, and that’s only worth one point on top of the standard three at home? Home field advantage feels discounted. Houston off bye, but Baltimore is rolling.

The Pick:  BAL (-4)

NYJ at WAS (-1), 38.5-Point Over/Under

Against the Jets’ second-ranked rush defense, this is a rough week for Derrius Guice to return, especially with Adrian Peterson still bogarting carries. New York’s run defense contributes to their 11th-ranked overall defense, which is this matchup’s only above average quadrant:

game flowbotics week 11 nyj was 2019

(Remember negative values are bad for offense, but good for defense, and zero is roughly average.)

The Picks:  NYJ (+1)

ATL at CAR (-5.5), 49.5-Point Over/Under

Kyle Allen isn’t a world-beater, but he can hang with Atlanta’s second-worst pass defense and second worst pass-rush. The Falcons stack up much better against the run (10th in DVOA), but Christian McCaffrey has matchup immunity. Maybe Matt Ryan and company can keep this close, but I foresee a letdown after proxying their 2019 Super Bowl last week in New Orleans.

The Pick:  CAR (-5.5)

ARI at SF (-11.5), 45-Point Over/Under

Of the bottom-eight teams in DVOA, the Cardinals are effectively tied for the best average point differential (with Cleveland for what it’s worth). Translation: Arizona is a spread-covering machine. This matchup’s implied totals tell the story. They peg a 28-17 result in favor of the Niners, but the Cards have only been held to 17 or fewer points three times this season. San Francisco will the theirs, but so will Arizona.

Original Pick:  ARI (+13.5)
Current Pick:  ARI (+11.5)

NE at PHI (+3.5), 44.5-Point Over/Under

Tom Brady’s diet probably doesn’t lead to much salivating, but I bet the Eagles’ secondary looks pretty appetizing. All together, this contest features the best team in the league coming off their bye and only needing to win by four. Let’s not overthink it.

Original Pick:  NE (-3)
Current Pick:  NE (-3.5)

On to the weekly rankings…

Week 11 Rankings

Greg Smith

Greg Smith is an engineer, co-founder of TwoQBs.com, and enthusiast for the strategy and design of variance-based games.  When he started playing fantasy football in 2001, his home league's small number of teams necessitated starting two quarterbacks.  That necessity has since grown into obsession, making Greg one of the preeminent champions of 2QB and Superflex formats.

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