Week 12 Rankings & Game Flowbotics
My weekly picks against the spread and Week 12 rankings can be found below. The picks and ranks are informed by the matchup data from my Game Flowbotics spreadsheet. Here’s a link to this week’s installment:
Week 12 Game Flowbotics
I was on Thursday’s BettingPros podcast to break down the Week 12 betting landscape with Dan Harris. Check it out for analysis of my best bets for Week 12:
- BAL at LAR (+3), 46.5-point Over/Under
- The Pick: BAL (-3)
- OAK at NYJ (+3), 46.5-point Over/Under
- The Pick: NYJ (+3)
- MIA at CLE (-10.5), 44.5-point Over/Under
- The Pick: MIA (+10.5)
Here are the rest of this week’s rapid-fire picks:
SEA at PHI (-2), 48-Point Over/Under
The Seahawks and Eagles respectively rank eighth and 10th in DVOA, as well as eighth and 10th in weighted DVOA. In either case, Seattle rates slightly better, they’re getting points, and they have an MVP candidate at quarterback in Russell Wilson.
The Pick: SEA (+2)
DEN at BUF (-4), 37-Point Over/Under
I tend to fade the perception of home field advantage (see the pick above for instance), but I think it matters more against inexperienced quarterbacks like Brandon Allen and for cold-weather east coast teams like the Bills. Full disclosure: the Game Flowbotics stats appear to favor Denver. But Buffalo has the coaching advantage, and I’m buying the home field narrative in the context of this specific matchup.
The Pick: BUF (-4)
JAC at TEN (-3), 41-Point Over/Under
The situation-neutral pace stats at Football Outsiders peg these teams as two of the seven slowest in the NFL. With that said, I expect Derrick Henry to run wild against Jacksonville’s 23rd-ranked run defense. To keep up, Nick Foles will have to sling it. Tennessee’s 16th-ranked defense may slow down Jacksonville’s aerial attack at times, but 41 total points isn’t a tough ask.
The Pick: Over 41
DAL at NE (-6.5), 46-Point Over/Under
Both of the defenses in this contest are solid (if not spectacular in the case of the Patriots), so I shied away from making this a best bet for the podcast, but let me lay out the case for the over. These are two of the 12 best offenses in the league (Dallas ranks first, New England ranks 12th), and both teams rank top-three in situation-neutral pace. Assuming Amari Cooper plays, we should see these squads eclipse 46 combined points.
The Pick: Over 46
On to the weekly rankings…
Week 12 Rankings
Greg Smith
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