Week 13 Rankings & Game Flowbotics
Happy Thanksgiving, TwoQBers! My picks against the spread and Week 13 rankings can be found below. The picks and ranks are informed by the matchup data from my Game Flowbotics spreadsheet. Here’s a link to this week’s edition:
With three Thursday games and IRL obligations abound, stuffing fantasy football time into Turkey week isn’t easy. On that note, I’m going to continue my recent tradition of rapid fire picks:
NO at ATL (+6.5), 49-Point Over/Under
On a short week, it’s easy to back a New Orleans team that ranks 22 spots better in DVOA than Atlanta, and the Saints need to avenge the fly-by crapping the Falcons rained on them back in Week 10.
The Pick: NO (-6.5)
PHI at MIA (+9), 44.5-Point Over/Under
The exodus of talent from Miami’s already talent-deficient offense in recent weeks has killed their ability to hang around against significantly better teams. Philadelphia still fits the bill, despite their own health issues on offense. This is a matchup between DVOA’s ninth-best and worst teams. Don’t overthink it.
The Pick: PHI (-9)
CLE at PIT (+2), 40-Point Over/Under
Narratives aside, this matchup looks good for the Browns. They rank five spots better than the Steelers in DVOA, and while Devlin “Duck” Hodges is a fun story, he’s also a third-string quarterback.
Original Pick: CLE (-1)
Current Pick: CLE (-2)
GB at NYG (+6.5), 45.5-Point Over/Under
It’s tough to find bargains on public teams like Green Bay, but their flop against San Francisco made this line open at six. But sharp bettors (and public action, let’s be real) have already pushed it to 6.5. Either way, I like the Packers in what should be a get-right game.
Original Pick: GB (-6)
Current Pick: GB (-6.5)
TB at JAC (-1), 48.5-Point Over/Under
Bucs vs. Jags this week… You know what to do. https://t.co/iWl48fv1vy
— Greg Smith (@gregsauce) November 27, 2019
The Pick: Over 48.5
LAR at ARI (+3), 47.5-Point Over/Under
When the top two teams in actual pace are squaring off and they also rank top-four in situation neutral pace, it’s time to take the over.
The Pick: Over 47.5
NE at HOU (+3), 45.5-Point Over/Under
Ranking 18th in total DVOA, Houston is a slightly below-average team. On the flip side, the Pats are DVOA’s best team. DeShaun Watson is almost always live to cover, but I just don’t see it happening against New England’s top-ranked defense.
The Pick: NE (-3)
On to the weekly rankings…