Week 13 Rankings & Game Flowbotics

Week 13 Rankings & Game Flowbotics

Happy Thanksgiving, TwoQBers! My picks against the spread and Week 13 rankings can be found below. The picks and ranks are informed by the matchup data from my Game Flowbotics spreadsheet. Here’s a link to this week’s edition:

Week 13 Game Flowbotics

With three Thursday games and IRL obligations abound, stuffing fantasy football time into Turkey week isn’t easy. On that note, I’m going to continue my recent tradition of rapid fire picks:

NO at ATL (+6.5), 49-Point Over/Under

On a short week, it’s easy to back a New Orleans team that ranks 22 spots better in DVOA than Atlanta, and the Saints need to avenge the fly-by crapping the Falcons rained on them back in Week 10.

The Pick:  NO (-6.5)

PHI at MIA (+9), 44.5-Point Over/Under

The exodus of talent from Miami’s already talent-deficient offense in recent weeks has killed their ability to hang around against significantly better teams. Philadelphia still fits the bill, despite their own health issues on offense. This is a matchup between DVOA’s ninth-best and worst teams. Don’t overthink it.

The Pick:  PHI (-9)

CLE at PIT (+2), 40-Point Over/Under

Narratives aside, this matchup looks good for the Browns. They rank five spots better than the Steelers in DVOA, and while Devlin “Duck” Hodges is a fun story, he’s also a third-string quarterback.

Original Pick:  CLE (-1)
Current Pick:  CLE (-2)

GB at NYG (+6.5), 45.5-Point Over/Under

It’s tough to find bargains on public teams like Green Bay, but their flop against San Francisco made this line open at six. But sharp bettors (and public action, let’s be real) have already pushed it to 6.5. Either way, I like the Packers in what should be a get-right game.

Original Pick:  GB (-6)
Current Pick:  GB (-6.5)

TB at JAC (-1), 48.5-Point Over/Under

The Pick:  Over 48.5

LAR at ARI (+3), 47.5-Point Over/Under

When the top two teams in actual pace are squaring off and they also rank top-four in situation neutral pace, it’s time to take the over.

The Pick:  Over 47.5

NE at HOU (+3), 45.5-Point Over/Under

Ranking 18th in total DVOA, Houston is a slightly below-average team. On the flip side, the Pats are DVOA’s best team. DeShaun Watson is almost always live to cover, but I just don’t see it happening against New England’s top-ranked defense.

The Pick:  NE (-3)

On to the weekly rankings…

Week 13 Rankings

Greg Smith

Greg Smith is an engineer, co-founder of TwoQBs.com, and enthusiast for the strategy and design of variance-based games.  When he started playing fantasy football in 2001, his home league's small number of teams necessitated starting two quarterbacks.  That necessity has since grown into obsession, making Greg one of the preeminent champions of 2QB and Superflex formats.

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