I don’t know about y’all, but it’s been a whirlwind week for yours truly. I made my triumphant return to the 2QB Experience Podcast. … But it’s been strange readjusting to the weekly grind of fantasy football now that I’m stateside once again. After two solid weeks with my rankings, the fantasy football gods saw fit to humble me in Week 3. It might have been a self-fulfilling prophecy, but I could feel it coming. Like Icarus with wings of wax, I flew too close to the sun. Nevertheless, I must soldier forth with the Week 4 Rankings.
To help in the prognostication process, I’m patching my wings back together with support from my Game Flowbotics spreadsheet. If you’re familiar with my work in season’s past, you’ll see I’ve made big changes to the layout of my match-up matrix. As always, Game Flowbotics takes each contest on the NFL schedule and parses out all the relevant offense vs. defense match-ups for fantasy players using Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics.
DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. As the name implies, it rates and ranks football personnel against a league baseline. Early in the season, these metrics inherently pull from a limited sample size of regular season games, so it’s important to take the numbers with a grain of salt. On the other hand, Football Outsiders offers weighted DVOA values that consider preseason projections, and I’ve included those weighted values (DAVE) in the spreadsheet. Later in the season, FO will instead weight the DVOA values based on recent performance. Be sure to check out their site for full explanations of all their stats.
In addition to showing DVOA-based match-ups for NFL players, the Game Flowbotics page also shows betting lines from Las Vegas and uses those lines to calculate implied team totals. Altogether, my goals is for the spreadsheet to be a one-stop shop for all your start/sit needs during the season. In future weeks, my rankings and the Game Flowbotics posts will be separate entities, but I’m lumping them together this week due to scheduling constraints. Without further ado, here is a link to the spreadsheet and the Week 4 Rankings: