Week 5 Advanced Quarterback Matchups
Eli has stunk. He has zero top-12 finishes this season and has two finishes outside of the top-20. However, we must remember that he is only a season removed from a QB10 finish. He also has a better receiving trio this year than he did in 2015. With that being said, Eli is in the perfect spot to get out of his slump.
The Green Bay Packers have allowed 1.8 yards per carry on the ground, ranking second against the run per Football Outsiders DVOA. However, they are allowing 8.9 yards per attempt, which is second-worst in the NFL. They have given up back-to-back games over 175 yards to opposing WR1s as well. They rank 22nd in the NFL against the pass according to FO DVOA – but have yet to get blown up by Beckham.
The three most recent quarterback lines against Green Bay are 385-3-1, 286-2-0 and 320-1-1. These games have gone to Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Blake Bortles. I have the utmost confidence in Eli to produce something similar and put together a top-12 week.
One of the leaders of the Offensive Rookie of The Year race gets to face off against DVOA’s 32nd ranked passing defense. Per DVOA, they are allowing 52.4% passing production over the league average. That is worse than the 2015 Saints. Detroit has allowed QB1 (Luck), QB19 (Mariota), QB3 (Rodgers) and QB7 (Hoyer) finishes so far this season. They have also allowed the second-most passing touchdowns this season at 12.
Carson Wentz is currently Pro Football Focus’ best overall quarterback on the season. He is averaging 256 passing yards and 1.67 touchdowns on the season, and his completion percentage has increased every single week. Wentz is yet to throw for an interception and has 10 rushing yards in both of his previous two games. Knowing that Ryan Mathews has been banged up only increases Wentz’s value this week.
In his two starts this season, Hoyer has finished as QB11 and QB7. He has thrown for over 300 passing yards in both games and two touchdowns in each. Cutler finished as the QB25 in his only full start this season.
Indianapolis has allowed the eighth-most passing yards this season and is DVOA’s 29th-ranked passing defense this season. They also have just seven sacks on the season and have only caused one interception.
There may be concern that Kevin White is out and that he has been Hoyer’s top target, but he has been very inefficient. He has only caught 19-of-36 targets and is averaging 9.8 yards per reception. In fact, his loss could lead to increased usage for Alshon Jeffery, which should only benefit the offense.
IF Cam Newton is ruled out this weekend, Anderson makes a great option to fill in at QB2. He should be cheap, if not free on the waiver wire, and he has been very successful when stepping in for Cam Newton. In his two starts in 2014, he averaged 17 fantasy points. He also scored 13 fantasy points on only 23 attempts when coming in for Cam Newton last week.
The Tampa Bay passing defense has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, and has allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns. Tampa is DVOA’s 27th-ranked passing defense but is their 11th-ranked rushing defense. Because of their funnel defense, they have allowed 79% of the fantasy points against them to skill positions through the air. Fire up Anderson if he starts.
Bear with me here. Outside of Robert Griffin, the Steelers have allowed three straight quarterbacks to throw for over 280 yards and at least one touchdown. Both Carson Wentz and Alex Smith threw for two. However, this is still a scary play, seeing as Fitz has thrown for multiple interceptions in back-to-back weeks.
Pittsburgh is DVOA’s 17th-ranked passing defense and their eighth-ranked rushing defense, funneling opponents into the pass. This has resulted in them allowing the third-most passing yards on the season. Fitzpatrick should be a good bet to put up some serious passing numbers, even if he has some turnovers. Avoid Fitz in leagues that penalize heavily for incompletions or turnovers.