Week 7 Rankings & Game Flowbotics
Same as it ever was, scroll to the bottom of this post for my Week 7 rankings. Meanwhile, here’s this week’s link to the Game Flowbotics spreadsheet:
Examining the Week 7 matchups, some of the associated betting lines smell a little fishy. Maybe I’m onto something the public isn’t, or maybe I’m about to inadvertently ignite a betting bloodbath. Scared? Yeah, me too, but someone has to do the dirty work (see what I did there?). Here are the lines I like on the upcoming slate:
KC at DEN (+3), 48-Point Over/Under
The Chiefs rank third in overall DVOA, while the Broncos rank 18th. Yes, it’s a divisional game on a short week, and Patrick Mahomes is nicked up, but the spread isn’t large enough to push me off the clearly better team. I’m counting on Kansas City to cover.
The Pick: KC (-3)
LAR at ATL (+3), 54-Point Over/Under
Jared Goff’s road struggles have been well documented (and he hasn’t be great at home in recent weeks either), but no one really struggles against Atlanta’s shell of a defense. The Falcons have allowed an average of 31.0 points per game to opposing teams, while averaging only 22.5 points of their own (for an average point differential of -8.5). And despite their recent shakiness, the Rams still rank top-12 in defensive DVOA. This is another case of the road team being clearly better, so I’m laying the points with Los Angeles.
The Pick: LAR (-3)
ARI at NYG (-3), 50-Point Over/Under
Good offense is easier to come by than good defense, so when two bad teams with bad defenses get together, I expect a high-scoring affair. According to Football Outsiders, both teams in this particular matchup rank top-8 in overall pace and top-11 in situation neutral pace. Give me the over on 50 total points.
The Pick: Over 50
SF at WAS (+9.5), 41.5-Point Over/Under
My pattern of targeting matchups between good teams and bad teams this week should be apparent at this point. San Francisco ranks second in total DVOA, and Washington ranks 30th. Meanwhile, the Niners have won their games by an average of 16.6 points, and their opponent has an average point differential of -12.8 points. Laying only 9.5 points with the 49ers seems fine with all those facts considered.
The Pick: SF (-9.5)
JAC at CIN (+3.5), 44-Point Over/Under
The Bengals have been ravaged by injuries, and there will be recency bias with the Jaguars after they didn’t live up to the Gardner Minshew-led hype last week against a sneakily good Saints defense. Look for them to bounce back against Cincinnati, and if you have Jags on your fantasy rosters, this is the week to fire them up. The extra half-point tacked onto the key number of three is concerning, but I like Jacksonville to cruise to victory on the road. And before you flame my Twitter mentions because I’m picking four road teams this week, note that road teams are 56-34-2 against the spread this season.
The Pick: JAC (-3.5)
On to the weekly rankings…