Dak Prescott Will Roll as the New Starting QB in Dallas

Dak Prescott Will Roll as the New Starting QB in Dallas

Though this preseason has been relatively quiet with injuries, there was a major bombshell that dropped earlier today that will inevitably change 2016’s fantasy landscape. …

Appearing in his first action of the preseason on Thursday, Tony Romo was tackled from behind while attempting to slide. Now that injury will cost him a substantial chunk of the season. While we will certainly keep Romo in our thoughts and prayers during his recovery, it’s also our job to analyze this from a fantasy perspective. Particularly at the quarterback position, you are going to want to draft Dak Prescott.

Prospect Value

Prescott was somebody I was extremely high on as a prospect. He was an efficient collegiate passer in the SEC, posting an adjusted yards per attempt (AYA) of 8.7 or better in each of his final two seasons at Mississippi State. He did this with basically no NFL talent to throw to. Prescott was also a tremendous rushing threat, going for 2,521 yards and 41 touchdowns on the ground during his college career. Overall, I ranked him as the third-best quarterback in this class, which built in his expected draft position.

Schedule

Since we know what Romo’s timeline is, let’s take a look at his prospective schedule via the RotoViz Buy-Low Machine.

DAL QB Sched first 10

As you can see, Dallas actually has the second-easiest quarterback schedule over the first 10 weeks of the season. If I shortened that range to just six weeks, they are seventh-best. So no matter what you think of Prescott, he is going to be set up in a ton of situations to be successful for as long as he is the starter. And the better he plays, the more likely they hold Romo out to ensure he is at full health before returning to the field.

Ceiling

The real reason you want to select Prescott this year is his ceiling. Prescott has a world-class offensive line, and one of the best wideouts on the planet to throw to in Dez Bryant. He also has a great safety-valve in Jason Witten, and some decent ancillary targets in Terrence Williams and Cole Beasley. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is also an accomplished pass-blocker and receiver. Prescott finds himself in one of the most ideal situations for a rookie signal caller.

Then there is what we have already seen from him this preseason. In three games, Prescott has completed 39-of-50 passes (78 percent) for 454 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He has also added 53 yards and two scores on the ground. Do I expect him to maintain this crazy level of efficiency during the regular season? Of course not. But the fact that he’s a dual-threat who can score multiple ways and is a very capable passer bodes well for his success.

In a week-to-week setting against a good schedule, and with a bad defense that probably keeps him active in the offensive attack, he has a tremendous weekly ceiling. Keep in mind both Russell Wilson and Cam Newton were QB1s as rookies, and while Prescott probably isn’t that good, even Geno Smith was QB20 in total points, with some monster games in wins for the Jets. Prescott is absolutely going to have some huge scores during his time as a starter.

Conclusion

I have already updated my rankings on the site, and put Prescott at QB15. That is definitely on the aggressive side of things, but even in 2QB formats I firmly believe quarterback is a fairly replaceable position. In that sense, I want to be maximizing my weekly upside every time I set a lineup, and think that Prescott will do that better than a lot of signal callers this season.

The best part is I probably won’t have to select him anywhere near that ranking. Romo had an ADP of QB16 in our mock drafts, and I doubt Dak ever gets that high. In fact, you can probably get Prescott as a QB3 pretty easily. That said, he will definitely be someone I target aggressively in 2QB drafts the rest of this summer.

Anthony Amico

Anthony is a former football coach and possesses two different mathematics degrees. He uses his combined knowledge in those two fields to dominate the fantasy landscape across a variety of formats, including daily fantasy, dynasty, and 2QB. Anthony is currently a contributor for RotoViz, Fantasy Insiders, and TwoQBs, and has a pure passion for the game, both in real life and fantasy. 


7 thoughts on “Dak Prescott Will Roll as the New Starting QB in Dallas”

  • What about selling now with the news and if Dak is your QB 4 on taxi squad in a 2QB Dynasty League? How much to squeeze out of this?

    • Hey Jonathan,

      Selling now would probably net you a high rookie pick for next year, if you’re looking to add picks. If he’s your QB4 on a taxi squad I imagine you’re set with the other three QBs ahead of him on your depth chart. If looking to add players, you might be able to net a starter at RB/WR/TE (RB2/3,WR3/4,TE2 range), depending on who you are selling to and how desperate they are in need of a starting QB. The Romo owner would be the most obvious target.

      • As a Romo owner with no backup QB in a 2QB league, with a roster set for a good run in 2016, what should I be considering to give up for Dak. I know I will have to overpay. Or do I go after Flacco, RG3, or Fitzpatrick?

          • Sorry, Its Dynasty 2QB. 12 Starters, 30 man rosters. I think my roster looks good otherwise. I will give you the starters and top bench guys, Stafford, M Gordon, R Matthews, DeMarco, K Allen, Evans, D Thomas, Ebron, Buck Allen, K Benjamin, Maclin, Romo, Rishard Matthews, Dwayne Allen. I also have all 2017 & 2018 picks plus a few interesting prospects, Pryor, Conley, Kenyan Drake, Perkins. Sorry if this is to much info.

          • Cool. That’s a really solid lineup from top to bottom. Sorry the Romo injury made it take a turn for the worse.

            Depending on the roster of the Dak owner he might ask for a lot. Since it’s a dynasty league and I believe in his long-term talent I would be okay trading a young player like Rishard or someone like Perkins. You have to give something up to get it. I also love Flacco this year and if you’re in shape to contend would consider going after him. He’s kind of undervalued and you might be able to get a good deal on him.

    • When it comes to selling, I think it probably just comes down to price. Personally I think he is a hold if you drafted him, since you probably already valued him more than your league-mates, and now you are gaining additional value earlier that you would have previously expected. But if someone is willing to overpay and you get a skill player you think is long-term startable with upside, I would definitely consider it.

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