Early 2016 2QB Redraft Musings
It’s too early to formulate 2QB redraft strategies.
Yet, that didn’t stop me from starting a 10-team 2QB redraft mock to gauge the 2QB redraft temperature. (If you want some 2QB dynasty talk, you can check out my overall 2QB dynasty rankings and read what I had to say about 2QB dynasty startups.)
2QB fantasy football leagues of ten teams or less aren’t for me. I prefer 12 teams, but I constantly hear the complaint of how there’s not enough quarterbacks to go around, so I focused my attention on a 10-team mock to appease the TwoQBs readership. I went into the mock pretty loose, with only one real agenda: wait on quarterbacks.
With the quarterback position as deep as ever, I wanted to see how long I could wait until I nabbed my starting quarterback duo, and see how 2QBers were treating the position in general.
2QB Mock Draft Results
*Replace Thomas Rawls (1.02) for Marshawn Lynch and anybody for Owen Marecic (7.06).
Here’s a rundown of the quarterbacks drafted:
|QB1 - Andrew Luck, 1.02|
|QB2 - Aaron Rodgers, 1.04|
|QB3 - Russell Wilson, 1.08|
|QB4 - Cam Newton, 1.09|
|QB5 - Peyton Manning, 2.03|
|QB6 - Ben Roethlisberger, 2.04|
|QB7 -Drew Brees, 3.06|
|QB8 - Matt Ryan, 3.10|
|QB9 - Tom Brady, 4.02|
|QB10 - Tony Romo, 4.05|
|QB11 - Derek Carr, 4.07|
|QB12 - Matthew Stafford, 5.10|
|QB13 - Ryan Tannehill, 6.10|
|QB14 - Philip Rivers, 7.01|
|QB15 - Marcus Mariota, 7.02|
|QB16 - Blake Bortles, 7.04|
|QB17 - Carson Palmer, 8.04|
|QB18 - Eli Manning, 8.05|
|QB19 - Tyrod Taylor, 8.06|
|QB20 - Jameis Winston, 8.08|
|QB21 - Joe Flacco, 9.05|
|QB22 - Sam Bradford, 9.08|
|QB23 - Andy Dalton, 9.09|
|QB24 - Teddy Bridgewater, 9.10|
|QB25 - Alex Smith, 10.06|
|QB26 - Ryan Fitzpatrick, 10.08|
|QB27 - Colin Kaepernick, 11.01|
|QB28 - Jay Cutler, 11.07|
|ROUNDS 12-15: None|
You can see an elite tier of QB1s splintered off with Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton taken in the first round.
I think that grouping will be pretty standard throughout 2QB drafts this year. You could add Ben Roethlisberger and perhaps Tom Brady into that mix. Unlike last year, where it was a clear cut debate of Luck vs. Rodgers at 1.01, Wilson and Newton have crashed the 1.01 party this year.
Every 2QB draft will be different, based on league size, scoring settings, and owner draft tendencies, but the QB1 tier was an interesting group: Luck, Rodgers, Wilson, Newton, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Brady, Tony Romo, Derek Carr, and Matthew Stafford.
Waiting is the Hardest Part
If 2QB redraft ADP is similar to this particular mock draft, my preference would be to wait until rounds seven or eight and use two-three straight picks on the quarterback position.
Take a look at the quarterbacks selected in the eighth round, for example: Carson Palmer (8.04), Eli Manning (8.05), Tyrod Taylor (8.06), and Jameis Winston (8.08).
Palmer was the fantasy QB5 last year, Eli was QB10, and Winston was the QB14 (only 6.28 points back of QB12). On a points per game basis, Taylor was the QB8. Yet, they were all drafted as low-end QB2s. From a weekly standpoint, each of those four signal callers had at least five weeks of QB1 (top-12) production in 2015.
This speaks to the depth of the position, and if you’re willing to wait, you could potentially be rewarded with high-end fantasy quarterback production at a fraction of the cost.
Joe Flacco, who I recently profiled as a two-quarterback redraft target for 2016, was taken with pick 9.05 as the QB21. In a ten-team league that’s the QB3 tier.
The Ravens signal caller only played in ten games last year, but finished as a fantasy QB1 in half of those games. If he consistently falls into the late QB2/early QB3 tier there’s a high likelihood I’ll own plenty of Flacco shares this year. I do think his 2QB ADP redraft will be higher than where he was taken in this mock draft, but it’ll still be low enough where he’ll be a value pick.
Alex Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick (if a Jet or in a similarly favorable situation) in round 10 at mid-range QB3 prices? I’ll take that every day if that becomes the norm this offseason.
As for my wait on quarterback strategy, here’s how my overall roster looks:
QB1 – Tyrod Taylor
QB2 – Joe Flacco
RB1 – Le’Veon Bell
RB2 – LeSean McCoy
WR1 – Allen Robinson
WR2 – Mike Evans
WR3 – Alshon Jeffery
TE – Travis Kelce
K – Steven Hauschka
DST – Denver Broncos
Bench: Dion Lewis (RB3), Alex Smith (QB3), Jordan Reed (TE2), John Brown (WR4), Duke Johnson (RB4)
Between Taylor, Flacco, and Smith, I have assembled a stable trio of quarterbacks I can mix and match at the QB1 and QB2 positions each week based on matchups. They combined for 18 QB1 and 36 QB2 finishes last year (out of a possible 40 games).
Waiting on quarterbacks allowed me to assemble a strong squad overall; one where there is no weakness. I may be biased when it comes to the latter part of that previous sentence, but I’m not one to usually brag. There are elite talents at each non-quarterback position, and even the bench spots are filled with starting options.
If any of my quarterbacks were to falter or sustain an injury for a significant amount of time there’s enough trade bait at RB/WR/TE to swing a trade for a quarterback upgrade. Conversely, if all three of the signal callers I rostered continue to be productive fantasy quarterbacks they would make for attractive trade options for quarterback-needy teams.
Building such a (hopefully) competitive roster in a 10-team 2QB league is much more feasible than in a 2QB league of 12 teams or more, but it can be done. As long as you’re willing to wait and take on a late-round quarterback draft mentality.
Not every 2QBer feels comfortable waiting on quarterback though, but if you can break the mental barrier of potentially missing out on early elite quarterbacks you could benefit the rest of your roster by waiting. But if you wait too long you could miss out completely. It’s a game of risk where you have to decide how risky you’re willing to be.
*Stats used in this article courtesy of FantasyData